Labour Predicted To Lose 213 Seats at the Next General Election

Labour predicted to lose 213 seats at the next general election

RHODA WILSON

Keir Starmer’s Labour Party currently has 412 members in the UK Parliament. Using advanced modelling techniques, Electoral Calculus estimated at the end of March the probability of the various possible outcomes at the next general election and predicted that Labour would lose 213 seats.

To have a majority in the UK, a political party must win at least 326 out of the 650 seats in the House of Commons. Based on opinion polls conducted from 6 March 2025 to 28 March 2025, Electoral Calculus predicts that Labour will lose 213 seats in the next general election, which is scheduled to be held no later than 15 August 2029.

They predict that Labour will win 199 seats, Conservatives 156 and Reform 167, with the caveat that “the future is never certain.”

“In terms of seats, we calculate that the three big parties would be fairly equal, but Labour would (just) be the largest party. However, a Reform-Conservative coalition could be the most likely option in practice, albeit with a minimal majority. But the situation is very fluid,” Electoral Calculus said.

A Few days after Electoral Calculus announced the results of its polls, Britain’s senior psephologist Professor Richard Rose penned an article:

At last July’s election, Nigel Farage’s party … took eight times as many votes from the Conservatives as it did from Keir Starmer’s party.

Now that Labour is in control of government, it has become the victim of Reform’s protest appeal. In the average of March opinion polls the two parties are nearly tied for first place with support for each just under 25 per cent.

Labour is still forecast as likely to win the most seats in the House of Commons according to MRP analysis, but its projected 189 MPs is less than half the total it now has and it is 137 seats short of a parliamentary majority. A breakdown of Labour losses shows that it would lose 121 seats to Reform candidates if an election were held today.

With the next general election more than four years away, the Labour government has lots of time to recover. On present poll figures, MRP analysis shows that there is a one in ten chance that Labour could gain a parliamentary majority of 331 seats. Neither Reform nor the Conservatives have even a long-shot chance of winning a majority of MPs. But there is also a one in ten chance that Labour could end up with less than one hundred MPs in the next House of Commons.

Labour Haemorrhaging Seats to Reform, by Prof. Richard Rose as published by Electoral Calculus, 1 April 2025

With the local elections being held on 1 May, send a strong message and help make Labour’s nightmare become a reality.

Featured image: images taken from ‘Farage as likely to be next PM as Starmer, public believes’, The Telegraph, 19 April 2025

This article (Labour predicted to lose 213 seats at the next general election) was created and published by The Expose and is republished here under “Fair Use” with attribution to the author Rhoda Wilson

See Related Article Below

Reform would now beat Labour to be largest party, poll shows

Pollster predicts Nigel Farage’s party would win 180 seats at a general election, with Labour and Conservatives tied on 165 seats each

DOMINIC PENNA

Reform UK is now predicted to be the largest party at a general election.

A major new poll by More in Common suggests Nigel Farage’s party would take more than 150 seats from Labour and win 180 seats. Labour and the Conservatives would be tied on 165 seats each.

The projected figures mean that all three parties would fall well short of an overall majority in the Commons.

It comes after a surge in Reform’s popularity since the general election, with the party now leading both Labour and the Tories in an average of the opinion polls.

Mr Farage hopes that this will translate into success at the ballot box at local elections in 10 days’ time, amid separate predictions that it will be the largest party on eight county councils.

The More in Common mega-poll uses the Multi-Level Regression and Poststratification method to predict which seats will go to which party.

This method has successfully forecast several recent general elections in the UK, as well as contests in Australia and Spain.

Labour is projected to lose 153 seats to Reform, 64 to the Conservatives, 23 to the SNP and five to independent candidates.

The nine Cabinet ministers who would lose their seats to Mr Farage’s party include Angela Rayner, the Deputy Prime Minister, Yvette Cooper, the Home Secretary, and Ed Miliband, the Energy Secretary.

John Healey, the Defence Secretary, and Lisa Nandy, the Culture Secretary, would also lose their constituencies of Rawmarsh and Conisbrough and Wigan.

Wes Streeting, the Health Secretary, is projected to lose his seat to an independent candidate in Ilford North.

Mr Streeting held on to his seat by just 528 votes at last year’s general election after a challenge from an independent candidate who is the granddaughter of Palestinian refugees.

Labour has seen its support among Muslim voters collapse in the wake of the Oct 7 terror attacks by Hamas on Israel and Benjamin Netanyahu’s subsequent war in the Gaza Strip.

Meanwhile, Tory losses to Reform would include Rebecca Harris, the party’s chief whip, and Victoria Atkins, the shadow environment secretary.

The poll predicts Labour would not only reverse last year’s gains in the Red Wall – traditional safe seats in the north and Midlands that it won back from the Tories last year – but its heartlands in the Welsh Valleys would fall almost entirely to Reform.

The SNP would regain much of the Scottish Central Belt, while there would also be significant losses for Labour across Yorkshire.

Another striking feature of the prediction is how marginal the result would be in hundreds of constituencies.

The model used suggests 233 Commons seats – more than one in three – would be won with a margin of less than five per cent.

Out of these, 101 are too close to call, with a margin of less than two per cent. According to More in Common, this points to a “more fragmented” political system than at any point in British history.

The Telegraph: continue reading

Featured image: YouTube, Twitter

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