Labour’s Budget Will Bankrupt Britain

Chancellor Rachel Reeves has done the impossible by upsetting everybody with her emergency budget

CONNOR TOMLINSON

Labour’s spring statement went down like a brick in a duck pond yesterday, with MPs, businesses, and financial regulators alike. Growth forecasts are falling faster than Keir Starmer’s popularity, and seen more revisions than Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ CV. The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) halved its projection for GDP growth from 2% to 1% for this fiscal year, in less than six months. Borrowing increased by £15 billion since April 2024; £20 billion more than the OBR forecast in October 2024, and £3.4 billion more since Reeves’ first budget in October 2024. The government will borrow £18 billion more than projected over the next two years: double the £5 billion per year potential savings from cuts to welfare, which Labour’s large socialist cohort have threatened to rebel against. (They insist on having 25% of the working-age population claiming disability benefits, and an ADHD diagnosis qualifying you for a brand new BMW.) Spending continues to rise to £1.3 trillion per year, despite the cost of borrowing increasing by 0.75 percentage points since the election. 10 year GILT rates today are 4.72% — higher than the spike coinciding with Liz Truss’ mini-budget in 2022, which Labour continue to claim “crashed the economy.” Isn’t it odd how nobody is knocking on Downing Street, demanding Starmer and Reeves resign?

Labour’s Budget Will Bankrupt Britain

Source: https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-march-2025/

Britain is still on track to fall afoul of Ferguson’s Law: that any state which spends more on servicing the interest on its debt (over £100 billion) than on defense (£5 billion, up to 2.5% of GDP from April 2027) will inevitably fail. Signs of that financial Thucydides Trap have long since been written on the Treasury’s wall. The UK was the fastest growing economy in the G7 before Labour won the election; but with GDP growth falling from 0.8% in the first quarter to 0.1% in the last of 2024, we are now projected to be third for 2025. We have the worst real GDP percentage change post-pandemic of any G7 country except Germany, whose economy has shrunk in real terms by 0.1%. While our debt-to-GDP has fallen under 100% since August 2024, we have reached debt-to-GDP parity faster than G7 countries like Italy, who have been there for decades.

Labour’s Budget Will Bankrupt Britain

Labour’s Budget Will Bankrupt Britain

Indeed, Telegraph economist Liam Halligan relayed a story wherein a senior Labour politician said that the government could conduct “quantitative easing [digital money-printing] for the people” in order to give consumers more money to spend, thereby growing the economy, with absolutely no thought for how that might increase inflation. Former Reform MP Rupert Lowe had a similar exchange with a Labour minister, who said he believes the public sector (civil service) is more productive than the private sector (businesses). Lowe terminated the meeting. Another Labour MP, Jonathan Brash, took a swipe at me on once, when I shared footage of Jeremy Clarkson calling for unproductive roles across Whitehall to be cut in order to save money, rather than pursuing a Marxist grave-robbing inheritance tax on family farms. Labour’s ideology appears to be that of the Soviet Union: that paying one factory to make the right boot, and another the left, results in more economic output.

The government has it all backwards, as demonstrated by their oxymoronic promise to “regulate for growth”. Indeed, their plan to further regulate businesses with their Employment Rights Bill, euphemized as protecting “workers rights”, was not included in the OBR’s long-term economic forecast. The only comment the OBR made about the bill was:

“Employment regulation policies that affect the flexibility of businesses and labour markets or the quantity and quality of work will likely have material, and probably net negative, economic impacts on employment, prices, and productivity.”

The government’s own estimates project the bill will impose an additional £5 billion per year on businesses — which many will look to offset by limiting expansion, cutting new or existing hires, and thereby shrinking the economy. No wonder business confidence is at a record low, the CIPD forecast 25% of employers to make redundancies, and OBR believes unemployment will rise to 4.5%. In 2024, 10,800 emigrated from the UK. This is a 157% increase on 2023, and more than any other country except China. Britain’s economy is hemorrhaging opportunities and talent, and yet Labour insists on their high-tax, high-spend socialist orthodoxy anyway.

What could be done to change this? Britain continues to have the highest energy prices in the developed world, and will face a >£3 billion bill for renewables in the next 25 years. Labour have further penalized oil and gas extraction by filling the last of Britain’s fracking wells with cement. Leader of the opposition, Kemi Badenoch MP has finally recognized the carcinogenic effect of the 2050 net-zero target on Britain’s economy, and announced at a press conference last week her intent to scrap it, should the Conservatives win the next election. Nigel Farage’s Reform party has made the same promise for years. Meanwhile, Energy and Climate Change Secretary, Ed Miliband has pledged another £200 million to subsidize solar panels installed on schools and hospitals. Inconveniently, China produces 80% of the global supply of solar panels; which explains why Labour voted to block a ban on imports made by Chinese slave labor. The imprisoned Uyghur minority in Xinjiang produce 40% of polysilicon, used in solar panels. It seems Starmer’s government is comfortable with human rights abuses abroad, in order to inflict higher energy costs and lower living standards on British people at home.

Inconveniently, China produces 80% of the global supply of solar panels; which explains why Labour voted to block a ban on imports made by Chinese slave labor. The imprisoned Uyghur minority in Xinjiang produce 40% of polysilicon, used in solar panels. It seems Starmer’s government is comfortable with human rights abuses abroad, in order to inflict higher energy costs and lower living standards on British people at home.

Mass immigration is another unaffordable, unpopular policy that Labour could end. Despite branding the post-Brexit “Boriswave” of a million-plus non-EU migrants every year as a “one-nation experiment in open borders”, Starmer has stuck his lab-coat on and continued it. 95% of visas are issued to net-tax recipients; costing taxpayers at least £465,000 each. Granting the Boriswave indefinite leave to remain (ILR) will cost taxpayers £234 billion (£8,200 per household). Home Secretary Yvette Cooper could revise ILR rules without primary legislation, and ensure this cost never befalls British taxpayers. Instead, as former Chancellor Lord Hammond told Sky News, the government will continue “managed migration” in order to meet its housebuilding target of 1.5 million new homes by 2029.

House prices will continue to rise, however, because the OBR expects at least 1.5 million migrants to enter Britain over the same period (previous OBR modelling has underestimated annual net migration by a factor of four). As deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayer conceded on Sky News, 70% of new homes will be given to new migrants. Additionally, Labour will portion thousands of these new homes as “dispersed accommodation” for the thousands of illegal immigrants crossing the English Channel in small boats. Over 6,100 illegal migrants have crossed the Channel this year already, a 40% increase (30,300) since Starmer took office. A document published by the Treasury’s new Office for Value for Money says that some of the promised 1.5 million new homes will be used for “asylum seekers” — costing taxpayers £14 a night, rather than hotels at £145 per night. This is part of “Operation Scatter”: Rayner’s plan to “equitably” disperse illegal migrants across all the boroughs of Britain. Rather than impose predatory men on locals areas to loiter outside school gates, Labour could leave the ECHR, repeal the Human Rights Act (much to Starmer’s chagrin), and deport these dangerous foreign criminals to save the taxpayer billions.


This article (LABOUR’S BUDGET WILL BANKRUPT BRITAIN) was created and published by Courage Media and is republished here under “Fair Use” with attribution to the author Connor Tomlinson

See Related Article Below

Collapse of the UK – starting in just a few days – Moloch’s Curse – “net zero”, toxic injections, immigration and, the last shoe to drop – massive public housing projects

PETER HALLIGAN

A year ago, I penned this article:

Out of the frying pan, into the fire – the UK is about to swap a bunch of experienced incompetents for a bunch of inexperienced incompetents

It was a bleak foretelling of the demise of the UK into that of a failed nation state. Politicians from both sides have demonstrated a staggering incompetence in the management of public finances.

Having mandated the forced injection with experimental toxins, the UK is in denial of the harms its government and health “authorities” have caused.

Changes in UK benefit system payments (PIP) – clues for vaxx damage?

Inject, poison, then accuse the UK population of being lazy – sound about right?

The next shoe to drop is to deny welfare t those affected and reduce their benefits.

There is a pandemic of the “vaccinated”, that the UK cannot afford.

As with all Marxist governments, it gets worse, much worse. The interest bill for past profligate spending and profligacy is around £100 million a year on over £2.5 trillion of accumulated debt – with no signs of reducing the debt – merely slowing its escalation.

28.4 million UK households have seen their spending on energy bills increase to close to £50 billion a year from £40 billion a year ago. An extra 10 billion a year.

Sicken the population and increase living costs. We all know that “net zero” is a complete fiction that achieves nothing except virtue signalling.

Almost every single hotel and boarding house has been taken up by legal and illegal immigrants. Around 2 million rooms costing around £100-200 a night. £300 million a night = £110 billion a year – which you can double for indirect costs for room service, translators, court appearances etc.

The next shoe to drop in the destruction of the UK is the upcoming changes in National Insurance (and the increase in the minimum wage).

Here, “Rachel from Accounts” has increased the cost of employment by reducing the threshold at which National Insurance is payable and increasing the rate at which it is payable.

Instead of paying 13,8% on earnings above £9,100, employers must now pay National Insurance (NI) on earnings above £5,000 and pay 15%.

Here is a table of the approximate costs for the overall economy.

The increase in employment costs is £31.6 billion. The public sector represents a cost increase that flows back to the government, but the private sector must bear a straight £25.8 billion reduction in profits.

The morons in the Treasury advising “Rachel from Accounts” who falsely assume that there are no second-round effects of this profit reduction.

There are many and obvious second round effects, of course. These second-round effects will include the shattering of marginally profitable businesses, the laying off of staff AND the increase in prices to compensate.

Here’s a mix of employment costs across the public and private sectors/

A screenshot of a computer screen AI-generated content may be incorrect.

And the revised NI numbers:

A screenshot of a black screen AI-generated content may be incorrect.

And these are the changes:

A black and white table with white text AI-generated content may be incorrect.

It will not ne lost on all employers that each percentage point increase in wage rates will be inflated by 15%, rather than 13.8%.

Each of those sectors will attempt to recover the increased costs by increasing customer charges. Civil servants, health workers and teachers maybe not so much, all swings and roundabouts as far as government revenues are concerned.

Supermarkets and banking? Local authorities have already increased their local axes by the maximum amount allowed and beyond where they are at, or close to, being bankrupt – 5%.

Then there are 18 million people in employment beyond the 10 million in those chosen sectors who will be passing along the hikes in their costs – or going out of business or laying off staff.

Whatever happens this year, next year’s budget will include the extra billions in the public sector – on health care, civil servants etc, which will necessitate more taxes as the lies unfold.

So, that’s the poisoning of the population by the government (and reduction in benefits), the immigration question and “net zero” measures. All of which inflict pain and suffering.

It does not stop there. There are increases in workers’ rights and minimum wages but leave those aside for now.

There is anther shoe. Housing the immigrants.

Labour has plans to build 1.5 million new homes to house its importation of 3-4 million legal, illegal and quasi-legal immigrants.

It will do this by borrowing the capital and importing even more legal immigrants.

It intends to build 12 new cities of around 124,090houses each. These houses will be “green” houses” and will be financed by borrowing the half million pounds each will cost.

To repeat, the UK does not have the builders, plumbers, electricians etc or the power, sewage and water builders – these will have to be imported – probably from the EU. More immigrants.

1.5 million times £500,000 = £750 billion pounds – spread over the next five years = £150 billion pounds a year to be added to the current trillions in national debt.

There aren’t sufficient skilled builders in the UK, to build these new cities and the infrastructure necessary to support them. They will be tomorrow’s slums that the next government will try and sell ff – at a loss.

Rather than evicting the illegal Immigrants – possibly around 1.5 million of them – the Labour government is going to build them houses. The housing program is NOT intended for Brits – it is for the immigrants. Only has to look back to the 1960’s when Labou previously pulled his stunt. It is part of the playbook.

The solutions remain obvious and bridal.

Set a mandatory budget surplus of £50 billion a year for the next ten years and tailor department votes accordingly. This means reducing spending from 1.4 trillion a year to 1.2 trillion a year – a cut of 14% in spending.

Exit the ECHR and expel millions of illegal and quasi-legal immigrants immediately.

Return a million legal immigrants.

Cancel all “net zero” policies and build a dozen (shale) gas-fired power stations.

Sack 30% of the civil service – starting at the top.

Sack half (375) of MPs costing £94,000 plus another £106,000 in support staff and costs – saving £75 million AND 90% (720 out of 800) of the House of Lords taking £323 pounds a day in expenses.

Eliminate the overseas aid budget – the foreigners are already in the UK.

Abandon Ukraine – it is a foreign war and none of the UK’s business.

Please take a subscription to gain access to the thousands of hours of research that go into producing these SubStack articles – or make a donation of $3 bucks or more for a ko-fi here:

(8) Ko-fi.com – Your Ko-fi

Onwards!!!


This article (Collapse of the UK – starting in just a few days – Moloch’s Curse – “net zero”, toxic injections, immigration and, the last shoe to drop – massive public housing projects) was created and published by Peter Halligan and is republished here under “Fair Use”

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