2023 Hurricane Season a Disaster for Climate Predictions?

Treacherously mild Climate trends reveal dangerously low levels of understanding

2023 hurricane season: worse than expected

In the upside-down world of climate science, where every bad thing is caused by climate change and there is a voracious need for weather disasters to prove just how bad things are getting, nothing cheers up the activists like a large catastrophic hurricane or two.
The more homes get knocked over and the more fatalities the better, and if you can tally up at least a billion dollars in damages then it’s truly an occasion for celebration.
But as Roger Pielke Jr. notes, that the 2023 US hurricane season came and went and there was only one hurricane making landfall, despite forecasts of many more. Spare a thought for the poor alarmists whose hopes were dashed once again.

The one hurricane, Idalia, made landfall as a Category 3 storm. Pielke Jr.’s graph of the long term trend of landfalling hurricanes is as follows:

Yup, that’s sloping down. As for major storms (Cat 3 or higher), here’s that graph:


Yes we have no trend. Normalized damage losses (adjusted for inflation and income growth) show no secular change from 1900 to 1970, after which they rise for reasons Pielke Jr. doesn’t explain. But he also notes that 2023 will be exceptionally low in the context of the modern record because there was only one hurricane.

Finally Pielke Jr. takes stock of the hurricane forecasts for the 2023 season and points out that 8 of the 11 predicted it would be worse, or better if you’re an alarmist, than they would have done if their authors had just used the historical average.

So almost all the hurricane models have a built-in bias toward the future being stormier than the past. Which doesn’t mean the future will actually be just as stormy, or less so. It simply means that whatever it turns out to look like, we can’t claim to understand what is driving it because the scientific models make predictions that turn out to be unreliable.

Like we say, worse than expected. Unless you prefer to avoid catastrophes and costly weather disasters, in which case you’re (a) in luck, and (b) normal.


Please visit Climate  Discussion Nexus for many more great articles that will enhance your understanding of the climate psyop


 

••••

The Liberty Beacon Project is now expanding at a near exponential rate, and for this we are grateful and excited! But we must also be practical. For 7 years we have not asked for any donations, and have built this project with our own funds as we grew. We are now experiencing ever increasing growing pains due to the large number of websites and projects we represent. So we have just installed donation buttons on our websites and ask that you consider this when you visit them. Nothing is too small. We thank you for all your support and your considerations … (TLB)

••••

Comment Policy: As a privately owned web site, we reserve the right to remove comments that contain spam, advertising, vulgarity, threats of violence, racism, or personal/abusive attacks on other users. This also applies to trolling, the use of more than one alias, or just intentional mischief. Enforcement of this policy is at the discretion of this websites administrators. Repeat offenders may be blocked or permanently banned without prior warning.

••••

Disclaimer: TLB websites contain copyrighted material the use of which has not always been specifically authorized by the copyright owner. We are making such material available to our readers under the provisions of “fair use” in an effort to advance a better understanding of political, health, economic and social issues. The material on this site is distributed without profit to those who have expressed a prior interest in receiving it for research and educational purposes. If you wish to use copyrighted material for purposes other than “fair use” you must request permission from the copyright owner.

••••

Disclaimer: The information and opinions shared are for informational purposes only including, but not limited to, text, graphics, images and other material are not intended as medical advice or instruction. Nothing mentioned is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment.

About Steve Cook 2137 Articles
Director, UK Reloaded
Contact: Website

Be the first to comment

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.


*