WILL JONES
The US-UK trade deal announced today is a clear win for Trump, says Sam Ashworth-Hayes in the Telegraph, leaving the UK worse off than in March and opening up UK markets in exchange only for reducing recently imposed tariffs. Here’s an excerpt.
April’s tariffs were set to be highly damaging, and it’s good that we’ve managed to limit their impact. It’s also the case that we’re still far worse off than we were in March.
The ‘trade deal’ announced today is thin. It doesn’t lift all the tariffs introduced this year, or do anything close. Britain has negotiated reductions to the additional rates on cars and components, steel and aluminium. This is a good thing, to be clear. But it’s also the case that every other additional tariff – including the 10% baseline rate – is staying in place. The tariffs our exporters face when trying to sell to the US will still be far higher than they were just a few months ago.
In practical terms, this means that Britain will be billions worse off. By putting together data on UK exports by subcategory, US tariff rates, and trade elasticities, I’ve come up with a rough estimate of the deal’s effects. It isn’t exact – given the time constraints it can’t be – and I’ve had to make some judgment calls about which tariffs apply to which categories.
But with those caveats out of the way, my back-of-the-envelope calculation is that the April tariffs would have lowered UK exports to the US by around £12.4 billion, and the value of the remaining goods sold by about £250 million. Not all of that would be a hit to GDP – some trade would likely be redirected – but it would certainly have been a blow. The deal on beef is essentially a rounding error, with the UK exporting around £3 million per year.
Today’s deal only slightly cushions it. Cars and automobile parts are a major part of the UK’s exports to the US, so there is some positive impact. But the net effect is that between lower export volumes and lower prices, we’ll still likely be £9.5 billion worse off than we were before.
In exchange, we’ve cut existing tariffs on US beef, offered tax concessions for US tech firms, and apparently agreed to buy $10 billion worth of Boeing planes, in some form or another.
For Donald Trump, it’s a clear negotiating win. He lowered tariffs that were most likely imposed in an attempt to get other countries to fall into line, delivering a synthetic solution to an artificial crisis. In exchange, he won material concessions from Downing Street.
Worth reading in full.
Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch slammed the deal, tweeting that since America tripled its tariffs while Britain slashed ours, we have been “shafted”.
See Related Article Below
Trump Announces Trade Deal With the UK
GUIDO FAWKES
Trump is unveiling the trade deal agreed with the UK. Starmer is speaking at a press conference at 4 p.m. Now later…
Starmer is on the phone with the President there. Trump says “great deal for both countries.”
- “Unprecedented access to UK market” including ethanol, beef, cereals, fruits, vegetables, animal feed, tobacco, soft drinks, shellfish, textiles, chemicals, machinery.
- Fast tracking American goods through UK customs process.
- Final details being written up in coming weeks.
- Details to bring UK into “economic security blanket” with US.
- Trump said the “final details” are still being “written up… the actual deal is a very conclusive one we think, just about everything has been approved.”
- Starmer says “tribute to both teams, tribute to both countries.“
Commerce secretary Howard Lutnick says the nationalisation of British Steel is part of the deal and that the UK will buy £10 billion of Boeing plane parts today. “Everything works exceptionally well for the United States of America”…
More details:
- UK agricultural markets opened up to US, worth £5 billion.
- 10% tariff stays.
- Quota of 100,000 UK cars with 10% tariff afterwards.
- UK matching US tariffs on steel.
- Aerospace exports tariff free.
Downing Street says “the Digital Services Tax remains unchanged as part of today’s deal. Instead the two nations have agreed to work on a digital trade deal that will strip back paperwork for British firms trying to export to the US – opening the UK up to a huge market that will put rocket boosters on the UK economy.”
Trump says “because of Brexit in particular, this was a separate deal.”
USA predicts deal will “exponentially increase exports of US beef.” UK has agreed to accept 13,000 tonnes of US beef. Imports of hormone treated beef or chlorinated chicken are off table…
Film not in the deal.
UPDATE: Badenoch says: “We cut our tariffs — America tripled theirs. Keir Starmer called this ‘historic.’ It’s not historic, we’ve just been shafted!”
UPDATE II: Andrew Griffith, Shadow Trade Secretary, praises the deal:
“The reduction in tariffs announced today will be welcomed by exporting businesses. The ability to strike our own free deals is a Brexit benefit and I hope this moves us conclusively into an era where this government is committed to preserve that freedom.
Conservatives have been consistent in their support for trade agreements and the reduction of tariffs and today is the continuation of a process which started under the first Trump presidency.
But British businesses need to hear more details about the deal which has been agreed and for the government taking actions to support business such as shelving the devastating Employment Rights Bill and reducing the UK’s uncompetitively high energy costs.”
Not much co-ordination on this response then…
This article (TRUMP ANNOUNCES TRADE DEAL WITH UK) was created and published by Order Order and is republished here under “Fair Use”
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US and UK sign a trade deal
PETER HALLIGAN
Not much detail – 10% tariff on cars, Rolls Royce parts and engines tariff free as are steel and aluminium.
US imports to the UK not detailed yet, but agricultural standards in the frame.
The 10% tariff remains for the most part.
Trump explains the US perspective here:
BREAKING: Pres. Trump makes major trade deal with UK ‘very big deal’
From Brave AI, here is some context on trade in 2023:
Outwards to the US:
“The United States is the largest export market for the United Kingdom, with the main exports including medicinal and pharmaceutical products, beverages and tobacco, and machinery and transport equipment.4 Additionally, the UK exports a significant amount of services to the US, particularly in the areas of business and management consulting, and public relations services.
- Medicinal and Pharmaceutical Products: The UK exported £24.7 billion worth of medicinal and pharmaceutical products to the US in the 12 months ending February 2025, accounting for 6.8% of total goods exports.
- Beverages and Tobacco: The UK exported £11.8 billion worth of beverages and tobacco to the US, making up 3.3% of total goods exports.
- Machinery and Transport Equipment: In 2023, the UK exported £27.2 billion worth of machinery and transport equipment to the US.
- Business and Management Consulting Services: The UK exported £22.9 billion worth of business and management consulting services to the US in 2023, which accounted for over half (54.8%) of all UK exports of this service type.
- Other Business Services: The UK exported £56.9 billion worth of other business services to the US in 2023.
And outwards from the US:
“The United States’ main exports to the UK include machinery and transport equipment, which accounted for the largest share of goods imported to the UK from the US in 2023, at £19.9 billion. Other significant imports include fuel and chemicals, with fuel accounting for £18.7 billion and chemicals for £7.8 billion.
- Machinery and Transport Equipment: This category includes a wide range of products such as vehicles, aircraft, and machinery, and was the largest share of goods imported to the UK from the US in 2023, totaling £19.9 billion.
- Fuel: Imports of fuel from the US to the UK were valued at £18.7 billion in 2023.
- Chemicals: Chemical imports from the US to the UK were worth £7.8 billion in 2023.
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Onwards!!!
SOURCE: Peter Halligan
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