Quackery and Fakery, civilisation laid low by the charlatan virus

Our civilisation is being held back by quackery and fakery, by collections of conjecture, assertions and opinions and outright manipulative falsehoods masquerading as  “sciences” (such as economics, politics and psychiatry) and which when applied to the real world create a mismanaged and sometimes lethal mess.

And there is our obsession with the modern shaman, the “expert” who is not as expert as he pretends to be or even thinks he is. . .

Fun Fact:

by Poyan Nahrvar

Between 1987 and 2003, real scientist Philip Tetlock asked journalists, political scientists, politicians, economists, government officials, and employees in the “intelligence” agencies, to predict the outcomes of major world events and documented the results.

Typical questions included “will George HW Bush be re-elected in 1992?” or “Would Quebec successfully secede from Canada?”.

All in all, he collected 82,361 verifiable predictions by these “experts”.

What he found was that the experts were worse at predicting the outcomes of these events, than a random number generator.

Meaning that not only are these experts no better than someone with absolutely no expertise, they are actually worse. They are trained to be bad at their jobs.

The result of this study were published in his book “Expert Political Judgment”.

So remember, when you see an expert or journalist on TV or in a newspaper giving his opinion about the outcome of an event, you would have a better chance of getting the correct prediction if you placed random pieces of paper on the ground with the different outcomes written on them and let a bird fly above the paper and picked whichever outcome the bird shat on.

The bird-shit economic/political predictor is scientifically proven to yield consistently better results than the experts you are told to trust by government and media.

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About Steve Cook 2138 Articles
Director, UK Reloaded
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