If Farage succeeds in destroying the Tories, we are doomed to perpetual Left-wing rule
The Reform leader knows what has gone wrong – but he can never hope to fix it
In the space of just a month Britain has witnessed two symbolic political moments. First, Reform polled higher than Labour. Then, this week, its membership reportedly powered past the most recent Tory tally of 131,000. The country’s long-threatened populist shake-up is happening faster than we could have imagined this time last year.
The Tories are rattled: by quibbling Reform’s card carrier numbers on Thursday, Kemi Badenoch committed her first major unforced error. But you can see why they’re worried; as Conservative central office will well know, members means foot soldiers – the volunteers who campaign, drop leaflets, set up branch offices, and turn voter intentions into crosses at the ballot box. If Reform’s new members are prepared to buckle down to this, they are going to be a formidable force.
Momentum is with them, and it’s not difficult to see why. To paraphrase Lenin, worse is better for insurgents, and our economic backdrop stinks. The Office for Budget Responsibility’s latest Fiscal Risks and Sustainability report has the national debt on track to reach 274 per cent of GDP in 50 years’ time, with public spending hoovering up 60 per cent of national output.
A lot can happen in half a century, but the current path is unsustainable. In some regions, we’re past the point where despair and exhaustion set in. Entire communities have been “left behind”, with residents stuck in dead-end minimum-wage jobs or eking out a soul-destroying existence on welfare; once-pleasant neighbourhoods fall prey to drugs and vandalism. Stagnating living standards and rising squalor beget declining confidence in conventional politicians, whose concerns and squabbles seem far removed from those of ordinary people. The public is less tribal than ever; and Reform is addressing folk in a language they understand.
Nigel Farage has accurately identified the two greatest barriers to our long-term prosperity, both inflicted on Britain by clueless politicians who have lost sight of the national interest. By demanding we scrap the net zero target, Reform is speaking to the millions of Britons perturbed that costs keep surging despite promises to the contrary. Last week it was the “grocery tax”; before that, the revival of the “boiler tax”, EV quotas pushing up the costs of petrol vehicles, green levies on energy bills, extra taxes on flights.
If wind and solar are cheaper than gas, people are asking, why subsidise them? Why have UK electricity prices increased nearly every year since we began the switch to renewables?
The Tories boxed themselves into this corner and haven’t quite found a way to talk themselves out; Labour’s net zero policy is in the hands of a credulously fanatical believer in the cult of climate alarmism who wants us to go ever further, faster. For Farage, there is a third way: scrap the target. Put North Sea oil and gas – and the tens of thousands of jobs it provides – front and centre. Preserve our car industry. Grow food, not solar panels.
But it is immigration which is Farage’s strongest sell. With numbers arriving averaging 1.1 million over the past three years there is no better time for Reform to play to fears that we are not being told the whole truth – and that the status quo is a preface to something much worse, with decades of ever-greater transformation of the country stretching ahead. This was the year the national conversation shifted.
We began to talk about how mass migration is outpacing our ability to build infrastructure, making us all poorer. Forget GDP, what about GDP per head? Asking questions about the composition of migrants, rather than overall numbers, has ceased to be taboo. Reform MPs are raising concerns many have long been afraid to.
The Tories spent 14 years letting voters down on immigration. “Look at what the hands are doing, not what the mouth is saying,” Reform tells us, not unreasonably. And Keir Starmer has blocked his ears to the problem, deciding not to include immigration among his six milestones at Labour’s recent relaunch. Meanwhile Yvette Cooper’s gangbusting is hardly going, well, gangbusters.
It is these two issues which have propelled Reform into the mainstream. Populism is a rejection of the just-leave-it-to-us technocratic ideology, and nothing screams technocracy louder than outsourcing climate change decisions to quangocrats or detaching immigration policy from anything resembling a democratic process.
And at its helm, Reform has a talented orator and gifted campaigner. Farage passes the pint test, and is chummy with both the president-elect and the world’s richest man. He has a far more extensive social media reach than his rivals – as he gleefully reminded Badenoch this week. Like Donald Trump, though on a more modest scale, he has an established fan base.
Anonymity won’t stand in the way of Reform and success. But, could success be its downfall? Let’s assume that Farage is able to deliver on his promise to “professionalise” Reform, turning it from a limited company into a political party with credible candidates in forthcoming elections. That more high-profile defections, to follow Tim Montgomerie and Andrea Jenkyns, solidify legitimacy and turn it from a refuge for the deeply disaffected to a palatable alternative for many Right-leaning voters. Let’s believe that it can decentralise and grow at warp speed while maintaining discipline, without insurmountable rifts arising between its star players. And let’s finally say that Farage is able to place “hundreds” of new MPs on the tired green benches.
With the Tories destroyed – after all, Farage’s goal is to cannibalise the Conservative Party, not unite the Right – what comes next? When they have free rein to move fast and break things?
Then, perhaps, the doubts creep in. Reform says it would “pick up illegal migrants out of boats and take them back to France”, but does not explain how it would persuade Macron to agree. Its pre-election “Contract” pledged to settle “zero illegal migrants”, processing rapidly with those rejected “returned”, but others have tried this. Deporting foreign prisoners “immediately” at the end of their sentences, as Reform has promised, is already government policy.
And what of its economic agenda? […] Richard Tice and Rupert Lowe may bang the drum for lower taxes and a smaller state, yet Reform’s non-manifesto pledged an additional £17 billion for the NHS – significantly higher than any of the three main parties.
Starmer’s administration is the most dangerous in decades. The Tories are as yet light years away from convincing us they can reinvent themselves. So Reform is an increasingly plausible alternative…
The Telegraph: continue reading
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Reform UK surpasses Conservative Party in membership numbers
CP
Reform UK, the party led by Nigel Farage, has achieved a historic milestone by surpassing the Conservative Party in membership numbers for the first time.
According to Reform’s online membership tracker, the party now boasts 133,340 members as of 2pm on Thursday, overtaking the last known Conservative figure of 131,680.
This revelation is a significant blow to Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch, who has been grappling with the fallout from the party’s devastating general election loss. The surge in Reform UK’s membership signals a growing shift in the political landscape, with younger voters flocking to the party.
This is an historic moment.
The youngest political party in British politics has just overtaken the oldest political party in the world.
Reform UK are now the real opposition. pic.twitter.com/t8SOHThxp3
— Nigel Farage MP (@Nigel_Farage) December 26, 2024
Reform’s Growing Momentum
Reform UK’s recent growth has been fuelled by its appeal to younger demographics, with a reduced membership fee of £10 for those aged 25 and under. Over the weekend, Nigel Farage announced that 1,000 young people had joined the party within just 48 hours.
In a bold statement to celebrate the milestone, Reform projected its membership figure onto the Conservative Campaign Headquarters (CCHQ). Sharing an image of the stunt on social media, the party wrote: “Reform UK have just smashed through the Conservative membership number. Santa paid a late visit to CCHQ last night to wish @KemiBadenoch a Merry Christmas.”
Merry Christmas @KemiBadenoch. pic.twitter.com/XtuHgwhQ4W
— Nigel Farage MP (@Nigel_Farage) December 26, 2024
Political Shifts Across the Spectrum
While Reform UK’s numbers soar, Labour Party membership has fallen to its lowest point in a decade. Official accounts reveal that Labour now has 370,450 members—down from the 532,000 recorded under Jeremy Corbyn’s leadership in 2019.
The Conservative Party, on the other hand, has not regularly disclosed its membership figures. The last official count, released during the leadership election in November, confirmed 131,680 members.
Leadership Reactions
Reform’s deputy leader, Richard Tice, believes the membership surge will translate into increased poll support. Speaking to The Telegraph, Tice said:
“Everybody who wrote us off, we’re just warming up. By this time next year, we’ll not only have more members than the Tories, but we’ll also be the biggest party in polling terms.”
He continued:
“The frustration with the state of the country, the economy, and the pain of socialism is palpable. People are realising that Britain needs Reform. The Tories look stale and turgid. This is an existential crisis for them—nobody wants them anymore.”
Reform chairman Zia Yusuf echoed this sentiment, declaring:
“History has been made today, as the centuries-long stranglehold on the centre-right of British politics by the Tories has finally been broken. Nigel Farage will be the next Prime Minister, and will return Britain to greatness.”
What’s Next for Reform UK?
As the party celebrates this landmark achievement, the focus will shift to maintaining momentum in the polls and presenting itself as a viable alternative for frustrated voters. With bold promises of economic growth and political reform, Reform UK positions itself as a force to be reckoned with in the rapidly changing political landscape.
The battle for the future of the centre-right in British politics is heating up, and Reform UK appears determined to claim the crown. Or perhaps the right will find the wisdom to unite before the next general election.
Conservative Post Editor Claire Bullivant says: “Now is the time to take the fight to Labour, not to each other. A united right could set Britain on a path to victory, not just for one term, but for generations to come. Reform brings courage, boldness, and fresh enthusiasm; the Conservatives contribute the organisational prowess and institutional muscle memory honed over centuries.
“Together, they would be an unstoppable force—a coalition capable of pulling Britain back from the brink in 2029, reigniting our economy, restoring our sovereignty, and securing a future of prosperity and pride. The stakes have never been higher. The time will soon come to unite.”
This article (Reform UK surpasses Conservative Party in membership numbers) was created and published by Conservative Post and is republished here under “Fair Use” with attribution to the author CP
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