ER Editor: We invite readers to notice the disastrous state of, well, many governments today, but we have in mind the German, French and UK ones, in addition to the US and Canada. There are no coincidences.
The UK’s Labour Government continues to slide in the polls and looks to come third in local elections – a Labour rebellion is forming – UK Reform needs to build credibility
PETER HALLIGAN
Dec 29, 2024
Disclaimer: I will not vote in any election that does not campaign on a plan to reduce local and national debt, whilst reducing taxes to a maximum of 10% of all income. I doubt I will vote again, ever,
Headlines are emerging with greater frequency in the MSM: like these:
“In local by-elections, Labour is now polling at just 24.8 per cent, fractionally ahead of the Tories on 23.7 per cent, says the respected Election Maps UK website.”
“Polling guru Professor Sir John Curtice, of Strathclyde University, said Labour was paying the price for not being honest with voters during the election campaign.”
I beg to differ. Aside from the incompetence and corruption that Labour has engaged in, it is enacting its manifesto published all the way back in April 2024 (scoot halfway down to the Labour manifesto comment).
The chattering classes on social media podcasts are, rightly, hammering the incompetence and corruption on display.
It is all well and good highlighting the obvious, but it’s absolutely necessary not to lose sight of the hundreds of billions of costs being imposed on Brits (“net zero”, “vaccines” and illegal immigration) as well as the millions in obvious corruption and incompetence.
“In the by-election the Conservatives got 35% of the vote, Reform 30% and Labour just 28%.”
An election result from a local Council – not a national Parliamentary seat.
“”He lied to us all to get elected and does not deserve to be the leader of the Labour Party. Good, honest councillors will lose their seats because of Keir Starmer’s actions and his attack on working-class people.”
Chancellor of the Exchequer, Rachel (“from accounts” Reeves has just started enacting the transfer of wealth from the private to the public sector – most notable through a whopping 40 billion grab from corporations via an increase in “Employer National Insurance” contributions (that will cost jobs and taxes) and inheritance tax hikes (that will cost 40% of the “estates” of the deceased starting in a few years’ time).
These tax hikes will NOT address the “status quo” of 80–100-billion-pound annual fiscal deficits or the national debt of 3 trillion pounds costing 120-150 billion pounds a year.
They are before the massive costs of building out “net zero” goals and 150,000 new homes a year for five years (costing around 50 billion pounds a year for the next five years).
The annual cost of illegal immigration is also not addressed. You might reasonably conclude that 150,000 new homes a year will eventually house 2 million illegal immigrants – who have invaded the UK over the last two decades. As it is, each of those 2 million illegal immigrants’ costs at least 25,000 pounds every year, EACH, – for housing, food, health and all the supporting services – taxis, legal and policing costs, and so on. All money handed out with no accounting and money denied to Brits in need of health treatments, poor housing and poverty – such as sleeping rough.
Another 50 billion pounds a year of immigrant criminals, rather than the poor and elderly in the UK.
Which brings us to UK Reform.
In my view, UK Reform has a huge task ahead to establish its credibility. It does have an opportunity to re-establish common sense policies – but -it needs a clear “living” manifesto in every policy area – from “net zero”, through immigration, education, health, judiciary, Ukraine, Trade, Sharia law – every government ministry.
And it needs to advertise this manifesto and distribute it as widely as possible. “Farage’s little blue book”.
It must have a plan to migrate the budgets of each ministry towards end goals AND it must have a bench of people who can transact the migration to the manifesto,
In pounds and pence – from the grass roots upwards.
Local candidates at the council and Parliamentary level must fully understand council budgets AND national budgets at the government ministry level.
I suggest that UK Reform needs to advocate for a reduction in the size of Parliament – to 400 seats AD the replacements of the House of Lords with a Senate of 100 – based on percentage of the electorate votes at the national party level.
The assets of the Royal family should clearly belong to the public and the Royal family as its caretakers/janitors.
So, a detailed alternative “UK Reform” Budget that itemises – from a zero-based budget perspective – what the future under UK Reform looks like – which can be directly compared to the status quo of Labour and Conservative budgets.
Mega-Poll Shows Labour Would Lose Nearly 200 Seats
RICHARD ELDRED
A new Sunday Times poll shows Labour on track to lose nearly 200 seats, with Reform U.K. making major gains and seven cabinet ministers – Angela Rayner among them – facing defeat, setting the stage for a hung parliament and the potential end of Britain’s two-party system. Here’s an excerpt:
The first significant seat-by-seat analysis since the General Election forecasts that, if another poll were held today, Labour would lose its majority and nearly 200 of the seats it won in July. The party, which won 411 seats in what critics called a “loveless landslide”, would lose 87 seats to the Conservatives, 67 to Reform U.K. and 26 to the Scottish National Party. Labour’s “red wall” gains would be almost entirely reversed, with Reform, rather than the Conservatives, as the main beneficiaries.
While Labour would still emerge on top, it would win barely a third of the total number of seats, giving the party a lead of just six seats over the Conservatives, while Reform would emerge as the third-largest party.
The analysis, by the think tank More in Common, suggests Labour would win 228 seats, the Conservatives 222 and Reform 72. The Liberal Democrats would win 58 seats, with the SNP on 37 and the Green Party on two.
The implied national vote share has Labour on 25%, the Conservatives on 26%, Reform on 21%, the Lib Dems on 14%, the Greens on 8%, the SNP on 2% and other parties on 3%.
Seven cabinet ministers would lose their seats, six of them to Reform, with Wes Streeting, the Health Secretary, losing Ilford North to an independent candidate, according to the analysis.
Others losing to Reform would include the Deputy Prime Minister, Angela Rayner; the Home Secretary, Yvette Cooper; the Defence Secretary, John Healey; the Energy Secretary, Ed Miliband; the Education Secretary, Bridget Phillipson; and the Business Secretary, Jonathan Reynolds.
Two further cabinet members would face tight races they are estimated to win by less than five percentage points against Reform: Pat McFadden, the Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster, in Wolverhampton South East, and Lisa Nandy, the Culture Secretary, in Wigan.
The model, created with survey data of more than 11,000 people, highlights a significant acceleration of electoral fragmentation since July’s General Election, with the model suggesting an election today would produce an unstable parliament with no single party able to form a government. To hold a majority in the House of Commons, a political party needs to win more than half the seats — at least 326 out of the possible 650.
According to the analysis, the next general election could herald the end of Britain’s traditional system of two-party politics, with 271 seats won with less than a third of the vote.
In another 221 seats the winner would hold a lead of less than five percentage points, where even a small swing could change the results, according to the analysis. In 87 seats the result is too close to predict and there is a statistical tie, with the estimated winner less than two percentage points ahead of their closest rival.
This appears to suggest that the U.K. is beginning to resemble other European countries, such as Ireland, France and Germany, where parties are struggling to achieve an outright majority. …
In July, Starmer’s party won 411 seats out of 650 on just under 34% of the popular vote on an extremely low turnout of 60%. Labour in fact won fewer votes in 2024 (9.7 million) than it did under Jeremy Corbyn when it lost in 2017 (12.9 million) or fell to a cataclysmic defeat in 2019 (10.3 million).
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