FRANK HAVILAND
Britain heads to the polls [today], in what promises to be one of the most consequential sets of elections in a generation. Across England’s council chambers, Scotland’s Holyrood and Wales’s Senedd, the ballot boxes are likely to deliver a verdict that the comfortable sofas at Westminster have long tried to ignore: Keir Starmer’s Labour government is in freefall. The Red Wall has crumbled for good. And far from capitalising as usual, the Conservative side of the Uniparty is odds-on for a thrashing too.
The cause? Parliament after parliament promised “change”, but delivered more of the same. Ordinary, working-class Brits were forced to watch, powerless, as their towns were hollowed out, their wages squeezed by net-zero dogma and mass migration, and their streets made less safe by two-tier policing and cultural surrender. Before a single vote is cast, the direction of travel for the country is now crystal clear – a decisive shift away from the failed centrist consensus, towards a politics that actually puts Britain and the British people first. Nigel Farage’s Reform UK is not merely knocking on the door, it is kicking it down.
Starmer meanwhile, already the most unpopular Prime Minister in living memory, faces a humiliation that will echo through the ages.
Defending just over half of the 5,000-odd council seats up for grabs, Labour is on course for a massacre. Poll trackers suggest Starmer’s party will lose anywhere from 1,400 to 1,900 seats. The Tories, still suffering from a bad case of political rigor mortis, are expected to shed another 800–900. The main beneficiaries? The Liberal Democrats, the Greens, and above all, Reform UK.
The latest YouGov numbers tell their own grim story: Labour has slumped to 18%, virtually tied with the Tories on 17%, while Reform sits comfortably out in front on 25%. Independent psephologists Stephen Fisher and Sir John Curtice both forecast that Reform could sweep between 1,300 and 2,260 seats (easily within my long-standing forecast of 1,500–2,000 gains, as regular Frank Report readers will know). That would mean Reform taking control of multiple Red Wall heartlands: Sunderland, Wakefield, Barnsley, Wigan and beyond, while potentially flipping eastern counties such as Essex, Norfolk and Suffolk from the Conservatives. The working-class revolt that delivered Brexit is not just continuing, it is completing its journey.
North of the border, the picture is equally damning for Labour. YouGov’s MRP modelling for the Scottish Parliament election shows the SNP heading for a narrow majority (around 67 seats), but Reform UK, polling neck-and-neck with or ahead of Labour on both constituency and list votes, is set for a historic breakthrough of roughly 20 MSPs. Labour, once the undisputed master of Scotland, is collapsing into a pathetic rump of perhaps 15 seats, scrapping with the Greens and Lib Dems for third place. Reform isn’t just overtaking Labour – it is replacing it as the real opposition to the SNP.
South of the border in Wales, the story is similar but even more dramatic. Recent YouGov MRP modelling for ITV Cymru Wales puts Reform and Plaid Cymru in a dead heat for first place, with Labour a humiliating third on around 12-16%. While an outright “win” for Reform in Wales remains a tight call (Plaid currently edges it in some models), the party is on course for 34-37 seats and the effective destruction of Welsh Labour’s century-long stranglehold. Only the most Panglossian Labour loyalist could pretend this is anything other than total humiliation.
London, as ever, is the partial outlier that proves the rule. Reform may well make solid inroads in the outer boroughs like Bexley, Havering, Bromley, but the inner city will remain impregnable. Instead, the capital looks set to fracture further, with the Greens surging as the Muslim vote deserts Labour en masse over Gaza and foreign policy.
Far be it from an imbecile like me to question the sagacity of Sir John Curtice, but I must diverge slightly from his analysis here. In short, I think the scale of Labour’s annihilation and consequentially Reform’s success are being slightly underestimated.
Here’s why:
- While ‘shy Tories’ were once a thing, and one certainly wouldn’t claim Reform UK supporters are ‘shy’ to the same degree, there is a consistent shy voter effect that pollsters have repeatedly failed to capture in terms of Reform.
- The disenchantment with Labour and the entire Uniparty duopoly is now truly nationwide, in a way we have never seen before. Even The Guardian concedes, this could deliver “unprecedented” losses for a governing party.
- That being the case, and noting the propensity of the British public to give the incumbent administration a kicking in the locals, 2026 is genuinely going to prove the battle of the protest vote. On the right, voters will flock to Reform because they want an end to uncontrolled immigration and the Islamisation of Britain. On the left, voters will embrace the Greens because they feel uncontrolled immigration and Islamisation haven’t gone far enough!
- The shine may well have come off Zack Polanski, now that he has been subject to heightened scrutiny. The Green Party leader has been roundly criticised for previously ‘liking’ antisemitic Facebook posts, claiming that British Jews might be experiencing a “perception of unsafety”, and recent revelations that he lied on his CV about being a spokesman for the British Red Cross. Having said that, many Green Party voters may see this as a measure of Polanski’s ‘soundness’.
- In terms of the Tories, the ‘Kemi bounce’ has been undeniable, with her current favourability sitting at -23, her highest figure since becoming leader. However, this has failed to filter through to her party, which remains as unpopular as ever.
The political fallout from such a night will be seismic. Starmer will cling on for now of course (the man has no shame), but the scale of the defeat will render his position untenable, meaning a leadership contest will now have no more excuses to stall. The knives are already out for Starmer, with the hapless runners and riders already firmly on manoeuvres. Angela Rayner has reportedly quit vaping (a heroic sacrifice, although HMRC is unlikely to be impressed at the loss of tax revenue), Wes Streeting is busy practising his concerned frown in the mirror, and Andy Burnham sits in Manchester still praying he can be parachuted into a “safe” Labour seat. Good luck with that, Andy. At this rate, they’ll be holding the leadership election in a phone box.
There is a certain dark satisfaction that only pure schadenfreude can bring. But no matter how enjoyable Labour’s destruction, the country is still left picking up the tab. The real bright spot come Friday morning will be this: Reform UK can no longer be classified as a mere insurgency – it is a serious political force. Whoever emerges from Labour’s inevitable bloodbath will almost certainly be just as useless as Starmer (though Angela Rayner may at least provide better entertainment). And that, ladies and gentlemen, makes an early general election not just likely, but increasingly inevitable.
Frank Haviland is the Editor of The New Conservative, and the author of Banalysis: The Lie Destroying the West.
This article (Reform’s Reckoning: Judgement Day for Starmer and Labour) was created and published by Frank Haviland and is republished here under “Fair Use”
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Hold Your Nose And Vote Reform UKI know, I know, but it’s a tactical necessity
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TOM ARMSTRONG
As you head to the polling stations for the local elections, held tomorrow, 7 May, you face a choice that feels all too familiar: more of the same, or something different. Many of you reading this are disillusioned. You look at the political landscape in Britain and you don’t see a battle of ideas; you see a “Uniparty.” You see a cabal of Labour, Liberal Democrat, Green and Conservative politicians who, despite their different coloured ties, seem to agree on almost everything that actually matters to the future of our nation.
For many patriots, the dilemma is real. You might be someone who looks at Nigel Farage with suspicion. You might see him as “controlled opposition”—a safety valve designed to vent populist anger without ever truly breaking the machine. Perhaps your heart lies with newer, more uncompromising movements like Restore Britain. But here is the hard truth of the upcoming local elections: Restore Britain is not fielding candidates in the vast majority of seats.
If you live in an area where there is no Restore candidate, you are left with a choice. You can stay at home, which the establishment will interpret as apathy. You can spoil your ballot, which they will ignore. Or, you can hold your nose and vote for Reform UK. This essay argues that for the sake of the country, the latter is the only logical path for anyone who opposes the woke, globalist establishment.
For decades, the British public has been sold the idea that we have a choice between distinct political philosophies. The reality is that on all the big issues of mass immigration, the “Net Zero” agenda, the erosion of free speech, and the surrender of sovereignty to globalist bodies, the main parties are in lockstep. This is the Uniparty. They represent a managed decline of the United Kingdom, prioritising international treaties and “woke” social engineering over the common sense and well-being of the British people.
When the Uniparty looks at election results, they aren’t looking for nuances. They are looking for a mandate to continue. If the votes stay within the three main parties, the establishment wins. They pretend to believe that the public is broadly happy with the direction of travel. To break this cycle, we must send a signal that is impossible to misinterpret. We must vote for what the establishment fears most: an anti-establishment alternative, or even an alternative that pretends to be anti-establishment – Reform UK.
Reform UK is not a perfect party. For those who believe the system is rigged from top to bottom, the presence of Nigel Farage is a sticking point. There are fears that Reform is just “Tory-lite” or a temporary distraction. However, politics is the art of the possible and what is seen to be possible. In this specific moment, Reform UK is the only vehicle with the infrastructure, the name recognition, and the ballot presence to actually hurt the Uniparty at the polls – and mass voting for Reform will be seen inescapably as an anti-establishment vote
The primary goal of this vote is not to endorse every single word that comes out of a party leader’s mouth. It is to create a “rejection event.” If Reform UK sees a massive surge in local council seats, the narrative changes overnight. The media and the Uniparty cannot dismiss it as a fluke. It becomes a formal, documented rejection of the globalist status quo.
A vote for Reform is a vote that says: “I am finished with the Uniparty. I am finished with being told that my culture, my history, and my concerns about my community don’t matter.” Even if you have doubts about the leadership, the act of voting Reform serves a strategic purpose that transcends individuals.
It is a mistake to view Reform UK solely through the lens of one man, or his team at the top of the party, many of whom are guilty of collaborating in creating the mess we are in. But behind the headlines, Reform is made up of thousands of good, hard-working men and women. These are your neighbours, local business owners, and veterans who are standing for council because they are fed up. They aren’t “controlled opposition”; they are patriots who want to fix their local potholes, protect their green belts, and ensure that local taxes are spent on local people, not on globalist vanity projects.
By voting Reform, you are supporting these individuals. You are giving a platform to people who, if elected to local government, can begin to dismantle the “woke” bureaucracy from the inside. Local councils are the front lines of the culture war. They are the ones pushing extremist gender ideology in schools and implementing “15-minute city” schemes that restrict our freedom of movement. Getting Reform councillors into these positions is a vital first step in reclaiming our communities. And if they fail, or the leadership prevents them from being trying, well, we will be better prepared to take them on when Restore Britain is up and running – we gave you a chance and you fluffed it.
If you are a supporter of Restore Britain or other smaller patriotic parties, as many of you are, you might feel that voting Reform is a betrayal of your principles. But consider the alternative. If you stay home or vote for a hopeless cause in an area where Restore isn’t standing, you effectively hand the seat to a Uniparty candidate. And that will be interpretated as acquiescence.
A strong showing for Reform UK acts as a “gateway.” It encourages the “silent majority” to see that there is life outside the big three. When people see their neighbours voting for an alternative, it breaks the spell of inevitability that the Uniparty relies on. It makes the “impossible” seem possible. This momentum is essential for all anti-establishment parties, including Restore Britain, in the long run. A rising tide lifts all boats; a breakthrough for Reform proves that the establishment’s grip is slipping.
The Uniparty thrives on your silence. They want you to feel that there is no point in voting, or that your only choice is between “Bad” and “Slightly Worse.” By voting Reform, you are throwing a spanner in their works. You are forcing them to acknowledge that a significant portion of the population views them as the enemy of the British way of life.
Imagine the shockwaves if Reform UK takes seats in traditional “safe” areas. It forces the mainstream parties to pivot, or at the very least, it exposes their panic. It emboldens other patriots to stand for office. It starts conversations in pubs and workplaces about the true nature of UK politics—the fact that we are being governed by a class of people who do not share our values.
This election isn’t about finding a political messiah. It isn’t about finding a party that matches 100% of your personal views. It is about survival. It is about using the tools currently available to us to strike a blow against a system that is actively working to dismantle our nation.
If there is a Restore Britain candidate in your ward, by all means, vote for them. But in the vast majority of the country, that choice won’t be on the ballot. In those places, you have a duty to the future of this country to be seen as anti-establishment.
Do not let the “perfect” be the enemy of the “good” (or even the “useful”). Even if you don’t trust the leadership, even if you fear they are part of the game, the optics of a Reform surge are a nightmare for the globalists. It is a signal of defiance. It is a declaration that the British people are waking up.
This week, for the sake of our children, our culture, and our sovereignty, go to the polls. If there is no Restore candidate, hold your nose, pick up the pen, and put your cross next to Reform UK. Let’s show the Uniparty that their time is running out.
This article (Hold Your Nose And Vote Reform UK) was created and published by Free Speech Backlash and is republished here under “Fair Use” with attribution to the author Tom Armstrong
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