Rachel From Accounts Continues the Destruction of the UK Economy

Rachel from accounts continues the destruction of the UK economy with puerile socialist policies

imagine a brain surgeon with zero qualifications or experience – tone deaf, stupid and dangerous. with the brains of a teenage focus group

PETER HALLIGAN

It is hard o identify any government policy that benefis the economy.

First the details in the ‘Autumn statement’;

From here;

Spring statement: Key points from Rachel Reeves’ economic update

“Here are the key points from her Spring Statement:

Economic growth

The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) updated its growth forecasts, taking into account lower net migration. It cut its forecast for 2026 to 1.1%, from its prediction of 1.4% at the autumn Budget, but then upgraded its forecasts to 1.6% in both 2027 and 2028, and 1.5% in both 2029 and 2030.

Inflation

The inflation rate was 3 per cent in January, down from 3.4 per cent in December, with food price inflation down to 3.6% at the start of the year. The OBR predicted inflation falling from 3.4 per cent in 2025 to 2.3 per cent in 2026 and 2.0 per cent from 2027 onwards.

Cost of living

After accounting for inflation, people are forecast to be over £1,000 a year better off , Ms Reeves claimed

Energy

The Chancellor stressed that energy bills would be coming down by £150 from next month.”

Tax

While wages are rising for millions of workers, their pay rises are being eaten away by inflation and tax rises including the ‘stealth’ levy hitting millions of people as the thresholds for paying income tax are frozen up until April 2031 .

Borrowing

Borrowing is set to be £18 billion lower, according to the OBR, compared to the autumn forecast. Public Sector Net Borrowing is set to fall from 4.3% this year, to 3.6% next year, then 2.9%, 2.5%, and 1.8% in 2029-30.

Unemployment

With unemployment already at 5.2%, Ms Reeves said it would peak later this year and then fall in every year of the forecast period, ending the Parliament at 4.1%. The OBR expects the unemployment rate to rise from 4¾ per cent in 2025 to a peak of 5.33 per cent in 2026.

Migration

The UK’s adult population is forecast to grow from 56.7 million this year to 58.1 million by 2030. Growth is around 50,000 a year lower than in the OBR’s November forecast, entirely driven by lower net inward migration.”

The reduction In energy bills is laughable since energy bills are up from £600 a year In 2006 to close to £2,000 this year – LEGISLATED BY successive governments- it is some kind of joke to give back £150 after stealing £1,400 A YEAR!!!

We have just seen a greater than 50 per cent increase in natural gas prices which are used) to set the price of the ‘energy cap’!

Energy bills may surge to £2,500 a year with price cap up 50% due to Iran war – should you fix now?

Out of interest, here’s Brave AI’s assessment of the track record of the OBR:

“In summary, while the OBR’s forecasts are more accurate than the Treasury’s on a median basis, they are not immune to significant errors, especially in long-term projections. The central issue is not just accuracy, but the high volatility and uncertainty inherent in forecasting five years ahead—particularly for fiscal policy, where decisions are now heavily reliant on these very unreliable numbers.”

FWIW, I project 3-5 pr cent inflation per annum to 2028, MINUS 1 to plus1 real GDP growth per annum for 2026/7/8snd unemployment heading

I also expect he fiscal deficit to equate to he cost of servicing debt 9around 4 per cent PLUS an increase in welfare spending of around 2 per cent for a total of 6 pr cent.

I expect that migration will lift the overall population to 60 million by 2030 – maybe lower with a “brain and money drain’’ of a million or so leaving the country.

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Britain’s tax burden is set to reach another record high as delusional Reeves reveals rapidly shrinking growth… but insists she has a ‘plan’

JAMES TAPSFIELD

Delusional Rachel Reeves insisted her ‘plan’ is working today despite Brits facing a grim new record tax high – and fears the Middle East war will make things even worse.

The Chancellor has unveiled her Spring Statement, talking up easing inflation and a Left-wing push to boost welfare – including by scrapping the two-child benefit cap.

But Ms Reeves confirmed that the independent Office for Budget Responsibility has sharply downgraded growth forecasts for this year from 1.4 per cent to 1.1 per cent.

Unemployment is due to peak at 5.3 per cent in the coming months, worse than previously anticipated and the highest for a decade outside of Covid. Furious businesses have pointed the finger at Ms Reeves’ decision to hike national insurance costs for employers.

While Ms Reeves boasted about an improved outlook in the Government’s books, details in the OBR’s assessment reveal that is driven by higher tax revenues – largely from the recent stock market rally.

That money is seen as offsetting billions of pounds in extra spending, on welfare, SEND funding and U-turns on issues such as business rates.

The watchdog cautioned that a 35 per cent stock market correction would entirely wipe out the Chancellor’s ‘headroom’ for hitting her main fiscal targets.

The tax burden is now on track to reach never-before seen mark of 38.5 per cent of GDP in 2030-31, even higher than the 38.3 per cent envisaged before.

The OBR raised concerns the Government is relying on a small base of better-off taxpayers for the bulk of revenues, while the ‘stealth raid’ of freezing earnings thresholds is very sensitive to changes in inflation and earnings.

And it gave a brutal insight into the pressures facing Ms Reeves amid the mounting threat from Russia and China, and chaos in the Middle East.

As the Government mulls the impact of global events:

• The OBR said increasing defence spending to 3.5 per cent of GDP – a goal set by Sir Keir without a fixed deadline – would cost £40billion a year;
• Welfare spending is due to rise by £18billion this year – £900million more than forecast in November – as health benefits increase;
• Some 600,000 more pensioners will be dragged into the tax system this year as a result of the thresholds freeze, with a million extra by 2030-31. However, the Government has committed to exempting those whose only income is the state pension from tax; 
• An exodus of Britons is expected to keep net migration below 300,000 a year, despite inflows from outside the EU;
• Brits have been warned their energy bills could nearly double this summer if the Middle East chaos continues. 

The set-piece comes amid mounting alarm at the developing war in the Middle East, which is already sending oil and gas prices spiralling.

In an interview with Bloomberg on Tuesday night, Ms Reeves said she was monitoring the situation ‘very closely’ and will do ‘everything in our power to protect businesses and and families in the UK’ from the economic fallout.

‘We have to see how things evolve in terms of where oil and gas prices go going forward,’ she said.

[…]

Concerns were raised today that the energy price cap could see a huge jump in July if the Middle East carnage persists, with the Resolution Foundation suggesting a £500 rise on typical bills and others expect even more. Meanwhile, there are already signs of panic buying at garages.

David Miles, from the OBR’s budget responsibility committee, said its predictions that inflation will fall to target levels early this year have become ‘more uncertain’ after jumps in oil and gas prices linked to recent attacks in the Middle East.

He said: ‘I think what will happen to inflation is particularly uncertain in the past few days.

‘As I mentioned earlier and we all know, there have been very large increases in gas prices and oil prices.

‘Our central expectation had been that inflation would fall back towards the Bank of England’s 2 per cent target early this year and will be around that level at the end of the year.

‘There must be more uncertainty around that right now.’

Even before the latest turbulence official figures were showing Brits actually getting poorer – with GDP per head falling for six months at the end of last year.

Ms Reeves claimed that falling immigration meant that metric would rise by 5.6 per cent over the Parliament – the same as the OBR estimated in November.

With the Government making clear there will be no big moves on tax or spending this afternoon, all eyes were on the forecasts from the OBR.

The Treasury watchdog followed the Bank of England in downgrading growth this year, with global instability and the impact of Labour’s massive tax raids weighing heavily on activity.

But it was still more optimistic than the Bank, which trimmed its estimate for expansion in 2026 to 0.9 per cent from 1.2 per cent, and to 1.5 per cent from 1.6 per cent for 2027.

Ms Reeves said that the OBR had delivered her some solace by nudging up the estimate for 2027 from 1.5 per cent to 1.6 per cent.

The watchdog has forecast 1.6 per cent for 2028 and 2029, marginally above the 1.5 per cent previously pencilled in.

Ms Reeves said: ‘With the unfolding conflict in Iran and the Middle East, it is incumbent on me and on this Government to chart a course through that uncertainty, to secure our economy against shocks and protect families from the turbulence that we see beyond our borders.

[…]

The Chancellor’s planned meeting with North Sea chiefs, which it is understood will take place in London, could prompt speculation that their tax burden could be under consideration, amid heavy lobbying from the sector to axe the windfall tax.

Currently set at 38 per cent, the levy was introduced under the previous government in May 2022 after profits rocketed because of a spike in energy prices following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

The Government has announced a consultation on plans to replace the tax, due to end in 2030, with a new regime aimed at providing more certainty for the sector while protecting consumers against future shocks.

The OBR pointed to the ‘significant risks’ around the forecasts, saying there were ‘plausible outcomes both substantially above and below the central projection’.

‘Conflict in the Middle East, which escalated as we were finalising this document, could have very significant impacts on the global and UK economies,’ the Spring Statement document said.

The Daily Mail: continue reading

 

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