PAUL HOMEWOOD

The OBR have now published their detailed fiscal outlook following Rachel from Accounts’ Emergency Budget Spring Statement.

Of interest to us is the table for Environmental Levies, which shows that the cost of subsidising renewable energy is set to rocket:

https://obr.uk/download/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-march-2025/?tmstv=1743072930

As has been the case for the last few years, they don’t include subsidies embedded in Feed in Tariffs, which they used to count as Levies. So I have included them in the modified table below, along with the Climate Change Levy imposed on electricity and gas bills for businesses, which are separately shown in Table 3.9:

In total therefore, the various subsidies and levies will cost £17.1 billion this year, rising to £19.8 billion in 2029/30. This will be £5.0 billion more than last year.

Given that all of this, except for RHI, is loaded on to energy bills, it is not credible that bills will fall by £300 a year, as Labour promised.

These projected costs are all either already in existence or in the pipeline. They will go even higher if Miliband starts spraying more money around on his pet projects, such as carbon capture.

Neither do these costs include the massive extra costs of balancing and upgrading the grid required to  meet Labour’s Clean Power 2030 objective, as already highlighted by NESO.

One of the OBR’s tables is worth a closer look at:

What this is saying is that wholesale electricity prices will quickly drop back to below £80/MWh, after the current spike.

The strike price for new offshore wind projects agreed last year is around £84/MWh at 2025 prices, and will likely rise to over £90/MWh by they time they begin operating in four or five years time.

This demolishes claims that they are cheaper than gas generation.

SOURCE: Not a Lot of People Know That

Public Accounts Committee Concerned About Clean Power 2030

PAUL HOMEWOOD 

h/t Ian Cunningham

The PAC is now getting worried about Miliband’s lunatic Clean Power plans:

 https://committees.parliament.uk/publications/47200/documents/245104/default/

Their latest report states:

They have every reason to be concerned.

As independent experts have long pointed out, NESO’s numbers do not stack up, particularly if demand increases as much as predicted.

At best their plan makes us dangerously reliant on imports and demand reduction. And at its heart, it assumes we keep open and ticking over all of our current gas fired capacity.

I see no evidence of DESNZ taking action to ensure this. Simply muddling through a year at a time, which is what the Capacity Market auctions essentially do, is not good enough. What are needed are long term 15-year contracts to secure all existing capacity that can keep going on that long, plus a rapid build out of new CCGT capacity incentivised by generous long term capacity contracts.

SOURCE: Not a Lot of People Know That

Featured image: medium.com

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