MARK ELLSE
The minimum wage is one of those policies people feel obliged to praise. It sounds humane. It sounds fair. It sounds as though it protects the weak. And, above all, it comes wrapped in the modern political vocabulary of equality – the one idea nobody now dares question. What is remarkable is not that the Left supports it, but that the Right has adopted the same assumptions. The belief that anything labelled ‘equal’ must be good has quietly replaced the older conservative understanding that equality can be either a virtue or a mistake, depending on how it is achieved.
And so the minimum wage has become a sacred object, rarely examined, never doubted. Yet if we look at how it actually works, the picture is far from reassuring.
A labour market full of people, but short of the right skills
We often hear that Britain has a labour shortage but our problems are more awkward than that. We have serious shortages in some areas, and an enormous surplus of unused labour in others. Healthcare, dentistry, skilled manual work and high-tech roles struggle to recruit. At the same time, more than 10 million working-age adults are not in work at all.
So the problem is not a lack of workers. It is that the workers we have are not in the right places, not with the right skills and not being drawn towards the jobs that genuinely need filling. A healthy labour market relies on pay differences to guide people. Higher wages where labour is scarce, lower wages where supply is plentiful.
The minimum wage dulls that mechanism. It raises pay across the board, whether or not there is a shortage. By doing this, it removes one of the central forces that drive productivity growth: the movement of labour towards more valuable work, flattening the signals that should steer people into the work the country actually needs.
A wage floor that has grown into the main structure
The minimum wage is no longer a modest safety net. It has become a major pillar of the entire wage system. The upcoming rate of £12.71 an hour works out at more than £26,500 a year for full-time work. Many people are genuinely astonished when they hear the annual figure: presenting it hourly helps keep the implications conveniently out of sight.
When the minimum wage began in 1999, it stood at about 42% of the median wage – £16,700 in today’s money. It is now fixed by government instruction at 67% – a rise of almost 60% relative to typical earnings. Ministers claim that this is the recommendation of an ‘independent’ Low Pay Commission, yet the commission is explicitly told not to let the rate fall below two-thirds of the median. Independence, in this case, means following orders.
The effect is obvious. Minimum-wage jobs are now comfortable for many workers, especially those also receiving Universal Credit. Pay bands that once meant something are squeezed together. Supervisory roles and minor promotions offer almost no additional reward. Many people sensibly decide that staying put is easier than taking on extra responsibility for very little gain.
The quiet exclusion of the low-skilled
As minimum wage jobs become more attractive, better-qualified candidates take them. Retail and hospitality, once the natural home of the low-skilled, now employ well-educated part-timers seeking easy, local work that fits around family life. Employers prefer them. They pick up the work quickly and cause fewer difficulties.
The losers are the low-skilled, who find themselves edged out of the very jobs they once relied on. They have not become less capable: the competition has simply become fiercer. The result is families living for generations outside the labour market, not necessarily because they refuse to work, but because the jobs they could do have been taken by people with far stronger CVs. Equality rhetoric claims to lift up the disadvantaged; in practice, it locks many of them out, it being the main cause of generational unemployment.
Depriving the North and Midlands of potential business advantages
The minimum wage is imposed uniformly, but Britain is anything but uniform. Businesses face long-term disadvantage in the Midlands and North, for reasons to do with geography as much as anything else. But the minimum wage prevents businesses benefiting from the parallel advantage of the lower cost of living outside the Southeast, by correspondingly lower wage rates, hence the lack of success of businesses in general in these regions.
Nurseries and care homes, already fragile businesses, find the sums no longer add up. An important part of their income is related to the property values of their residents’ former houses, which are lower in the North and Midlands. So care facilities have expenses fixed by the minimum wage, but lower income. Care in the community and the range of council and NHS services are priced by the Minimum Wage, preventing the local option of better services from more workers on lower pay. Instead, service providers respond in entirely predictable ways: by cutting posts, reducing hours or limiting services. Areas with the most fragile labour markets suffer first and most.
A policy sold as promoting equality ends up deepening inequality between regions.
Automation: the natural response to rising labour costs
Employers react rationally. When labour becomes more expensive, they buy machines that do the same work for less. They introduce self-service terminals. They redesign tasks to require fewer staff. All of this would have happened eventually, but the minimum wage accelerates it.
Entry-level jobs shrink. The first rung on the employment ladder becomes narrower, higher or entirely absent. For many people – especially the young and the low-skilled – opportunities simply vanish.
The spread of unregulated work
The higher the minimum wage climbs, the more tempting it becomes to step around it. The self-employed ignore it altogether. Family businesses often treat it lightly. Some minority-ethnic enterprises rely on internal labour arrangements that bear little resemblance to formal employment law. Meanwhile, fully compliant employers carry the entire weight of the regulation. The inevitable outcome is a growing informal economy that undercuts the formal one.
A deeper shift: the Right has adopted the Left’s worldview without noticing
Beneath all this lies a deeper worry. The old conservative instinct – to ask what a policy will actually do, rather than what it claims to do – has faded. The right now accepts the Left’s equality vocabulary without examination. Once ‘equality’ becomes a moral trump card it becomes almost impossible to question the mechanism used to deliver it. The minimum wage benefits enormously from this intellectual surrender. It is defended as a symbol, not tested as a tool.
And when both sides of politics agree not to question the premise, a harmful policy becomes almost impossible to unwind.
The minimum wage sounds humane and reasonable. But its real effects are clear. It obscures the signals that guide workers to the jobs society needs. It compresses pay structures, making responsibility barely worth taking. It excludes the low-skilled from work. It harms the regions least able to cope. It accelerates automation and expands the informal economy. Taken together, these pressures make the minimum wage one of the single biggest drags on UK productivity – a slow suffocation of efficiency dressed up as moral concern.
These harms are ever-present and are cumulative. The minimum wage acts like a chronic illness: slow, quiet and steadily weakening the system it inhabits. We keep it because it sounds virtuous – because it wears the cloak of equality – and because the political culture no longer has the confidence to question the assumptions behind it.
A policy designed to help harms us all – and harms the vulnerable most.
This article (The Problem With the Minimum Wage) was created and published by The Daily Sceptic and is republished here under “Fair Use” with attribution to the author Mark Ellse
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