The 2026 Local Elections Will Be Disastrous for Labour

Between now and May, the underlying political story will be Labour’s prospects in the local and devolved elections, and whether their result will be bad enough to prompt a change of Prime Minister. There will be the daily rhythm of other stories, of course – scandals, resignations, economic statistics, policy announcements, speeches, opinion polls. However, they will feed into that broader narrative. A development will be said to “ease pressure” or (more likely) “add to pressure” for Labour in the local elections. Some pundits have suggested that expectations of heavy Labour losses are “baked in”. It follows, they suggest, that Sir Keir Starmer might well survive.

There are some factors favouring that outcome. First of all, the indications are that Sir Keir would fight to keep his job. He enjoys it and regards his work as worthwhile – especially the international element. Secondly, under Labour’s rules, in order to oust him, there needs to be 80 Labour MPs who agree on an alternative. That is much more challenging than the unifying rallying call: “Starmer must go.” Thirdly, and a related point, would Labour MPs be confident that any new leader would boost their poll ratings? Last week, there was a JL Partners survey for the Independent. It did find that most thought a change of leader would help. But Andy Burnham was the favourite. That strikes me as a silly proposition to have put to them. Like asking if bringing Boris Johnson back as Conservative leader would increase the Conservative vote share. Burnham is not an MP. He would face considerable obstacles to becoming an MP. He is not available.

On the other hand, I jib at the local elections results being “baked in.” Bad, even very bad, results for Labour might be. But what if Labour endures an electoral tsunami? Cataclysmic losses? A virtual wipeout? I list the Council by-election results for this site and it is increasingly unusual for Labour to hold on to a seat it is defending. In other contests, their support often collapses.

I was struck by the result in the Columb Minor & Colan division of Cornwall a couple of weeks ago. This is in the St Austell and Newquay constituency, which Labour won last year in the General Election. Electoral Calculus reckons they got most of the votes from this ward at that election. They extrapolate based on previous ward results and the implied change from the constituency result in the General Election. On that basis, they suggest that in several wards most people would still have voted Conservative last year (including in Mevagissey, where I go on holiday.) But Columb Minor & Colan was one of the more Labour areas in a Labour constituency. On December 18th, Labour got nine votes. NINE. Just 0.7 per cent. Sixth place and below one per cent. What did the local Labour MP Noah Law make of it?

Sure, there was a low turnout. But that is my point. Labour has a motivation gap. Even those who tell pollsters they would still vote Labour, rather than anyone else, might not get round to it on May 7th.

Who will gain from Labour is likely to be a more mixed picture. Reform UK will be the biggest winners. Consider some of the Labour councils implicated in the rape gangs (“grooming gangs”) scandal. Several of the worst culprits face elections – Bradford, Wakefield, Sandwell, Oldham, Rochdale, Kirklees… That issue is likely to resonate in some of those local contests. There is an irony that Labour has got caught out for ignoring criminal activity from young muslim men, on grounds of political expediency, while its support among muslim voters is fragmenting.

What about Wales? Labour has won the plurality in every Senedd election since 1999. Every Welsh First Minister has been Labour. Now the big battle is between Reform UK and Plaid Cymru. Labour’s best hope is for third place. But what if they come fourth behind the Conservatives? Or fifth behind the Green Party? In Scotland, they are looking at third place behind the SNP and Reform.

London is Labour’s last best hope. It will figure prominently in 2026 with all the seats in all 32 boroughs up for grabs. This is the hardest territory for Reform UK – the anti London party. There best hope is round the edges, winning votes from people who don’t think they are Londoners. Those in Havering – who think they are in Essex. Those in Bexley – who think they are in Kent.

Yet there could be a Conservative revival. We could regain Barnet, Enfield, Wandsworth and Westminster.

Lord Hayward, a Conservative peer, but also a respected psephologist, says:

“A few months ago, it looked as if May 7 would be decisive for the leaderships of both Labour and Conservatives.

“As we move into 2026 it now looks as if the May elections could decide the fate of Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves, but it is less clear that that will be the case for Kemi Badenoch.”

We recently saw five Labour councillors in Brent defect to the Green Party. That followed earlier defections in Barking and Dagenham and my own borough of Hammersmith and Fulham. “Safe” Labour boroughs like Islington, Lambeth, Lewisham, Southwark and Hackney must all be Green Party targets. The Islamists will hope to triumph in Newham and Redbridge, replicating their success in Tower Hamlets. The we have the Lib Dems who are expected to advance – in Camden, perhaps. Hounslow is a confusing borough. We might see gains for the Conservatives, Reform UK and assorted independents. Labour appear to be in a complete mess.

Is there any borough in London that Labour can be confident of holding? Even in 1968, they clung on in three. Might they do worse than that? This is not to gloat. I would rather have a Labour council than live under the rule of the Green Party or a group of sectarian Islamist “independents”. Pray for Brent. Yet if Labour is swept out in London, it is hard to think of where they could win.

The Labour Party is eagerly factional when it comes to policy and ideology, while oddly feeble at regicide. If the total annihilation at the polls that I envisage for them transpires, then surely Starmer will go.