Robert Jenrick and the Tory psychodrama
JOSEPH DINNAGE
Kemi Badenoch took to X this morning to announce that she had sacked Robert Jenrick – the erstwhile shadow justice secretary – from the shadow cabinet, removed the whip and suspended his Conservative Party membership. The Conservative Party leader stated she was:
Presented with clear, irrefutable evidence that he was plotting in secret to defect in a way designed to be as damaging as possible to his Shadow Cabinet colleagues and the wider Conservative Party.
The evidence against Jenrick included a copy of a resignation letter ‘left lying around’ and meetings that took place between him and Nigel Farage.
As it turns out, they were correct. After a day of speculation, Jenrick joined Nigel Farage on stage at a Reform UK press conference and announced that he would by joining the Conservatives’ light-blue counterparts. Naming and shaming his former colleagues in the shadow cabinet, the man affectionately known as ‘Bobby J’ among his acolytes explained why he believes that Tory Party is no longer the best vessel for the British Right.
This is obviously less than ideal for the Conservatives. But still, firing Jenrick appears to have been Badenoch’s only tenable option. She both controlled the narrative and projected an image of decisiveness.
In her announcement, Badenoch cited Britons being ‘tired of political psychodrama’ as a reason for getting on top of the issue. She’s not wrong. A snap poll by the Daily Mail has 91% of respondents agreeing with the statement. After 14 years in government and what feels like almost as many prime ministers and chancellors, the last thing voters are looking for in a renewed Conservative Party is yet another turn on the merry-go-round of antagonistic internal briefing and regicide.
Yet getting rid of one of British conservatism’s more effective operators was a risky manoeuvre.
Nicknamed the ‘Duracell bunny’, Jenrick refused to take losing out to Badenoch in the Tory leadership election lying down. When Badenoch was polling particularly poorly and her shelf-life looked short-lived, he built up a devoted following with digital content focusing primarily on mass migration, street crime and the corrosive impact of politicised judges on our legal system. To some, it seemed likely that Jenrick would be leading the Conservatives into the May local elections.
Badenoch has since enjoyed a bounce in the polls following the Conservative Party conference and prior to his defection, Jenrick had remained conspicuously subdued. Now he has joined Farage’s ranks, there will also be questions about who might follow suit. For now, at least, Jenrick’s former party allies are saying they will stay put and the ‘contagion risk’ is thought to be low. But that could change.
While Farage wryly confirmed that he had indeed met with Jenrick, he initially insisted that a final defection agreement had not been reached. Patently, that all changed today. Yet it is uncertain whether accepting Jenrick was in Reform’s interest. Populating a party whose raison d’etre is to destroy the Conservatives with former Tory MPs – many of whom presided over policies which Reform now oppose – might not be a winning strategy. It took almost no time for X users to unearth posts in which Farage had criticised Jenrick’s record on asylum hotels, and it surely can’t be long before his statements supporting the controversial Afghan Resettlement and Assistance Programme re-emerge.
Ultimately, moments like this tend to have few clear winners but one obvious loser. Whether the loser is Badenoch or Jenrick remains to be seen and will be decided in the coming weeks. One potential outcome is that Jenrick’s mutiny inspires his followers both within and outside the party to join him. Alternatively, if the public expulsion pays off, Badenoch has an opportunity to lead the Conservative Party in her own way, free from the paranoia of having a leadership rival breathing down her neck.
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This article (Robert Jenrick and the Tory psychodrama) was created and published by CapX and is republished here under “Fair Use” with attribution to the author Joseph Dinnage
See Related Article Below
Sacking Jenrick has made Badenoch stronger
STEPHEN POLLARD
The most important thing about Robert Jenrick’s sacking isn’t Robert Jenrick. It’s that it is yet another demonstration of Kemi Badenoch’s increasing stature as Tory leader.
The Tory leader was presented with a gift – a sacking that was both necessary, obvious and politically useful to her, further cementing her standing as leader
For most of her first year – Badenoch Mark I, as it were – the mood music was all about when she would be deposed. The assumption was that her replacement would be Jenrick. That changed pretty much overnight at last year’s Tory conference, when Badenoch Mark II emerged. She made a stomper of a speech that was clear and convincing and told a story about her party, while Jenrick’s speech was a damp squib. That coincided with Badenoch’s PMQs performances moving from halting to dominant. They are now a weekly opportunity for her to display her strength.
Under Badenoch Mark I, the last thing Jenrick would have been thinking about was defecting to Reform. His eyes were clearly on replacing her as leader.
Badenoch Mark II meant that wasn’t going to happen. Jenrick has a knack for polished social media videos but that’s about it. And his transformation from Tory centrist to supposed champion of the right in the run-up to the last election and the subsequent leadership contest was a bit too obviously careerist. That was one of the reasons Badenoch beat him when they stood against each other. She was clearly more authentic.
With his Tory ambitions so diminished, it seems he has seen more chance of advancement in Reform. Presented with what Badenoch calls ‘clear, irrefutable evidence’ that Jenrick was plotting to defect, the Tory leader was presented with a gift – a sacking that was both necessary, obvious and politically useful to her, further cementing her standing as leader.
As it happens, a few minutes after Nadhim Zahawi defected earlier this week I received a text from a very senior Reform member who predicted that, rather than defect, Jenrick would simply walk away from politics. ‘There is no appetite for him in Reform beyond a potential junior cabinet level position, which will not attract him.’ Let’s see…
The golfer Gary Player used to say that it was a strange coincidence that the more he practised, the luckier he got. There’s a parallel there with Kemi Badenoch. It might sound ridiculous, given that she is leading a diminished party that is struggling to regain support. But Kemi Badenoch is turning out to be a lucky leader of the Conservative party. Lucky, in the sense that the longer she is in the job, the better she gets at it – and the luckier she is with her enemies.
Listen to James Heale and Tim Shipman discuss Jenrick’s sacking on Coffee House Shots:
This article (Sacking Jenrick has made Badenoch stronger) was created and published by The Spectator and is republished here under “Fair Use” with attribution to the author Stephen Pollard
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