Reform – the Ultimate SWOT Analysis

REFORM – The ultimate SWOT analysis

What are Reform’s chances? Here’s the best SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, Threats) guide you will find!

BRITISH PATRIOT’S SUBSTACK

Good companies use SWOT analyses not just out of curiosity, but as a tool for change. If you can identify a weakness, and if you can change this into a strength, then this is an opportunity. So let’s see what happens if we use this tool to analyse Reform UK.

Just over a year ago, at the general election in July 2024, a lot of patriots were bemoaning the fact that despite winning 14.3% of the national vote, Reform only gained 5 MPs (0.8% of the total) – far fewer than the 72 MPs won by the LibDems, despite them getting fewer votes (12.2%). Nigel Farage railed against the capricious unfairness of the first-past-the-post electoral system, vowing to campaign against this. Just over a year later and he seems to be suffering from electoral system Alzheimer’s, as you never hear him mention it anymore. And not surprisingly – now FPTP’s arbitrary proclivity to favour the largest party hugely benefits Reform!

One recent opinion poll (their best yet) has Reform on 34% of the vote, followed by Labour on 19%, the Tories on 15%, and the LibDems and the Greens tied on 12% each. This would give Reform a parliamentary landslide, with a predicted 445 MPs, with all the other parties trailing far behind: Labour 71 MPs, LibDems 48 MPs, and the Tories with a pitiful 14 MPs – behind the SNP on 41 MPs. So here’s an example of Reform turning a weakness into a strength: by having a distinctive message it has been able to use the vagaries of FPTP in its favour.

Another opinion poll, looking at the voting intentions of C2DE voters, has Reform on 38%, the Tories on 17%, Labour on 15%, the LibDems on 11% and the Greens on 9%. This is not as great a strength as it may at first seem, since this group is the least likely to vote – indeed, the least likely to even be on the electoral register – but it is an opportunity, if they can get them to turn out to the polling booth. But getting this demographic to vote has always been a huge challenge, so will Reform be able to do so? Maybe. My view is that these people don’t vote because they feel there’s no point: all politicians are the same and they don’t care about them, so whoever wins, they will always lose. If however Reform can get across the message that (i) they do care about these people, and (ii) they can win, then this segment of the electorate might feel sufficiently motivated to vote. But from personal canvassing experience I can tell you that many of these people do not even know how to vote, so Reform branches will need to put a lot of effort into this.

Unity is strength – but so is division!

Another opportunity is the potential appearance of the Corbynista party we have been promised – if the hysterical feminist nutjob Sultana doesn’t sink it before it even sets sail. It is a statement of the obvious to say that we are no longer in the world of two-party politics, but the country is fractured into two sides: the patriotic, pro-Brexit, pro-Britain, anti-immigration, right-wing voters and the left-wing, internationalist, pro-immigration, high-tax-and-spend, woke imbeciles. In order to win you need to maximise your vote among ‘your’ political side. Given that, as the Brexit referendum showed, the country is pretty evenly split between the two sides, the more your side is split, the less likely you are to win. We saw that in 2024, when although the combined Labour-Liberal Democrat popular vote was actually down, the right-wing bloc was split between the Conservatives, Reform and the disillusioned stay-at-homers, and Labour were therefore able to win a landslide 411 MPs with just 33.7%, and despite winning 560,000 fewer votes than Corbyn did in 2019.

So in order for Reform to win in 2029 they not only need to maximise their share of the right-wing bloc, but they must also hope that the left-wing bloc is as divided as possible. This dual need explains both their willingness to take Tory defectors, as well as their undoubted glee at the prospect of Jeremy Corbyn launching his own party (if he can overcome his currant Sultana problems!). Let’s look at the former group first. As well as a whole slew of Tory councillors, they have brought in former Tory MPs Jake Berry, Andrea Jenkyns, David Jones, Adam Holloway, Anne Marie Morris, Marco Longhi, Aidan Burley, Ross Thomson, Maria Caulfield and Nadine Dorries, and most recently the sitting MP Danny Kruger. [There was also Alan Amos, but the least said about this confused individual the better, as he was a Tory MP from 1987 to 1992, but left the party after an unfortunate ‘incident’ on Hampstead Heath, became a Labour councillor, left them and became an Independent, re-joined the Tories and then finally (?) in 2025 switched to Reform and is now one of their councillors on Worcestershire County Council!].

There is a second very important reason why Reform are eager to take on board so many former Conservative MPs: the main reason given, by voters who are considering Reform, for not supporting the party is their lack of experience in government. This is holding back 38% of ‘Reform considerers’, and is far and away their main concern. Nigel Farage is well aware of this and has mentioned it openly a couple of times. So taking these former MPs is a way of showing that the party is not a bunch of complete novices. Danny Kruger’s scalp is the most valuable yet in this regard.

At this point it is instructive to look at where Reform’s supporters have come from. The answer is that 39% of their current supporters are those who voted for them in 2024; 21% voted Conservative last year; 18% did not vote; 15% voted Labour; 3% LibDems; 2% Greens; 1% SNP; 1% Other. So it is clear that Reform recruits from both ex-Tories and ex-Labour, as well as those disillusioned with both parties who therefore previously felt disenfranchised – it is not simply the new Conservative party, and must not allow itself to be seen as such.

So while recruiting former MPs may be an opportunity to show that Reform is gaining people with parliamentary and governmental experience, the fact that so many are ex-Tories is in some ways a threat to Reform, as the party could come to be regarded as simply the Tories mark II, the party of recycled Tory rejects and failures. But Farage wants to attract as many Conservative voters as possible, to hoover up all the votes of the right-wing bloc, and also get people with experience of government. It’s a tricky balancing act, but the opinion polls suggest he seems to be performing it successfully, ironically helped by the fact that so many of these ex-Tories are such nobodies in the public mind that I bet even you had forgotten they had joined Reform! When specifically asked whether “Reform UK is just a party for previous Conservatives”, 32% agreed but 43% did not and 25% were Don’t Knows. So overall this doesn’t seem a huge problem yet, but a couple of defections from Labour would certainly be very helpful.

But back to Citizen Corbyn’s Tooting Popular Front. If he ever gets his arse in gear and his party off the ground, the polls suggest that he would most likely get around 6% of the national vote, attracting the support of 15% of Green voters, 9% of Labour voters, and 4% of LibDem voters. This is not a lot, but in a tight race could make all the difference. And he has the potential to win as much as 18% of the vote, taking 47% of Green voters, 32% of Labour voters and 29% of LibDems. But the most significant impact of a Corbyn party joining the field is that it will negate the threat that would otherwise be posed to Reform by Labour’s plan to extend the franchise to 16 and 17-year-olds.

Labour thought this would be a wizard wheeze, which would win them a shedload of votes from impressionable children they had brainwashed in the thought-control institutions previously known as schools, and this would see off the threat of Reform. But oh dear, it looks like they overdid that left-wing indoctrination and have handed those children straight over to the Corbyn Pied Piper. Those who will be 16 or 17 in 2029 are now around 13 years old, and these children have not been polled. Besides, they are probably not yet politically engaged, with their interest in politics only likely to develop later. So the best proxy for this group is to look at those who are currently 16 and 17 years old (and who have been polled).

The kids are allright

Now as it happens, while Labour does lead among this demographic, Reform are not as far behind as you might imagine, with Nigel Farage something of a TikTok star with 1.3 million followers. So voting intentions are Labour 30%, Reform 23%, and the Tories, the LibDems and the Greens all tied on 14% each. But look what happens when you throw Red Jez into the mix: Labour’s support falls to 24%, Reform remain at 23% (Corbyn holds no appeal for Reform voters), Jez himself gets 21%, the Tories drop marginally to 13%, the LibDems to 12% and the Greens suffer the greatest drop in vote share, falling to 6%. The important point though is that Labour and Reform are now neck-a-neck and Labour’s advantage – and the threat that reducing the voting age had represented – has been extinguished.

Let’s turn from the youth vote – an area of relative, though by no means fatal, weakness for Reform – to the bro vote, an area of relative strength and clear opportunity, and the petticoat vote, a demographic which is a clear weakness but if they can address this then this could become an opportunity too. 36% of men believe Reform represents people like them, as opposed to just 27% of women. But look at the ‘don’t knows’ – in other words those who don’t actively disapprove of Reform’s position and can be converted into supporters. The figures are 8% and 15% respectively. As for the youth vote, 25% of 16 and 17-year-old boys support Reform, compared to 19% of girls. When broken down by sex we see that a whopping 40% of boys have a favourable view of Farage (with a further 27% as don’t knows open to persuasion), but only 20% of girls have a favourable view of him – but with a full 40% as don’t knows who could be won over.

So there is plenty of opportunity for Reform to improve support among both sexes to over 40%. And the way to do that is, as the saying goes, ‘show, don’t tell‘. So they can extend their male-vote lead by highlighting the young men coming through, such as George Finch, who at the age of 19 has become Britain’s youngest council leader, running Warwickshire County Council. Research shows that young white men, who have been discriminated against both at school and in the workplace and told that their ‘toxic masculinity’ needs to be stamped out, feel that only Reform is sympathetic to them. But Reform are working on the female-vote too, which is why they have welcomed and promoted Tory defectors like Nadine Dorries (who, whatever you might think of her, has a regular and influential column in the Daily Mail), Andrea Jenkyns (who they pushed forward to be Mayor of Lincolnshire) and of course their new MP, Sarah Pochin.

What of the Great Leader, Nigel Farage: is he a strength or a weakness for Reform? Well, he is viewed favourably by 32% of the public, a favourability rating that is higher than that of any of the other party leaders (including among 16 and 17-year-olds). And he is recognised by 96% of the public, the same as the prime minister and significantly more than either Badenoch or Davey. And when the public are asked which of Starmer and Farage would be the best prime minister, 29% say Farage (including, amazingly, 11% of Labour voters!) compared to 27% who prefer Starmer. In a similar head-to-head, Badenoch is trounced by Starmer, getting only 15% of the vote. And 41% agree with the statement that “Nigel Farage looks like a Prime Minister in waiting” (compared to just 25% saying the same for Badenoch). So yes, despite my own personal misgivings about him, the polls show that in the country at large Nigel Farage is a strength for Reform.

But what about their policies?

A fascinating poll was conducted recently, with people asked to “imagine Britain a year into a Reform government” – what did they expect would be the result? Reform’s key policy is on immigration, and this has clearly driven their success, with 51% of total respondents saying the problem of immigration would get better – including 65% of Conservatives, 48% of Labour supporters and even 42% of wet LibDems! Here is the statistical proof of what a strength Reform’s immigration policies are. This is hardly a great surprise, since 72% think the level of immigration is too high, and only 19% think it is either too low or just right. But what about the rest of the important policy issues which worry the public? What percentage of people think these will improve under a Reform government?

Here are Reform’s ratings, in descending order of public confidence that a Reform government would make things better (and remember that in every case there were around 10% of Don’t Knows, who are open to persuasion):

Crime: 39%

The cost of living: 36%

The NHS: 34%

Taxes: 33%

Welfare: 32%

Energy costs: 32%

Education: 31%

The environment: 28%

Crime is clearly a strength, as 39% is well above Reform’s voting intention rating, and none of the others are significantly below the party’s overall standing in the polls (with the possible exception of the environment – but more on this below), so these are not weaknesses. What they are, therefore are opportunities: if Reform can focus on these issues (one at a time – neither the media nor the public are capable of taking on board more than one message at a time!), offering more detailed policies and hammering home how they will improve things.

And Reform have some great messages that they can, and must, push on several of these issues. On taxation, for instance, Reform have pledged to increase the tax threshold to £20,000, which will also help people on the issue of the cost of living. On the NHS, it is clear that Labour’s scaremongering that Reform want to privatise this and make everyone pay thousands of pounds for an operation is not cutting through. But maybe some people are concerned by this so if Reform keep repeating that they believe in an NHS free at the point of use, but better run so that waiting lists are shorter, then this will improve their rating further. Remember that Farage talks about adopting a French or German-style insurance model for the NHS (and not, as Labour lie, the US model), which most independent observers agree would be a good idea. Besides, the old chestnut that ‘the NHS is the envy of the world‘ is no longer believed, and 42% support the statement: “The NHS model is broken and needs to be fundamentally changed” and an outright majority – 57% – believe that reforming the NHS is more important than pouring more money into it. Times and opinions have changed, and contrary to what Labour believe, Reform’s position on the NHS is a strength, not a weakness.

Net zero? Net opportunity!

On energy costs, which are also a major factor in the cost of living, Reform can promise to radically cut these by dropping the huge and unnecessary costs of net zero. This should be very popular. After all, you and I know what a disaster net zero is. But I can hear some of you saying, ‘yes, that’s true, but isn’t net zero actually very popular with the public?‘ So isn’t this anti-net zero policy a weakness and a threat for Reform? I’m glad you asked, because this issue is not as straightforward as the eco-fascist nutjobs would have you believe. They are always eager to point out that if you just ask the question “How important, if at all, is it for the UK to achieve net zero emissions by 2050?”, YouGov found that 35% say very important and another 30% say fairly important. So do 65% of the public support net zero? Not really.

Another survey, By More In Common, found that while 60% will give the ‘politically correct’ answer expected of them when asked if they are “worried about climate change” (21% say very worried and 39% somewhat worried), only 46% actually support Britain’s net zero target, (equally divided between those who ‘strongly’ support it and ‘somewhat’ support it – 23% each). And if you drill down and ask what the top three issues facing Britain are, only 15% include ‘climate change’ – and even among the most indoctrinated 16 and 17-year-olds this only rises to 19%. So while people have been sufficiently cowed into parroting the approved lines on climate change and net zero, they are clearly merely paying lip service to them. And the figures become even less favourable to the eco-fanatics depending on how you frame the question and the debate.

Because what is clear from all the polling is that the price of domestic energy is what matters most: 88% of Britons are concerned about this (58% very concerned and 30% fairly concerned). And it’s the “actions of the UK government” that people blame the most for the high energy bills, with 30% saying the government is “almost entirely responsible” and 45% saying it’s “somewhat responsible”. At the same time, there is a lot of distrust of energy companies, both those based on fossil fuels and renewable energy. 54% say it’s either definitely, probably or possibly true that “big oil companies are secretly funding climate denial to protect their profits”, but an even greater 62% say it’s either definitely, probably or possibly true that “renewable energy companies are pushing the climate agenda because they stand to make huge profits”.

What this shows us is that there is huge anger, confusion and distrust among the public, both of the government and the companies. In other words, there is all to play for. “The game”, as Sherlock Holmes would say, “is afoot!” In this scenario the prize goes to he who is most persuasive. And given that nobody trusts the government, and that the Tories have largely swung their guns against the 2050 net zero target, Nigel Farage and Reform have a very good opportunity of winning this debate if they focus on two things: firstly, don’t get involved in the debate over whether global warming is taking place, but do keep hammering home that whatever the UK does it will have NO noticeable impact, and secondly, keep repeating that what matters is cutting energy bills, not the dogmatic pursuit of an arbitrary net zero target that will make no difference.

There is one important ‘nigger in the woodpile’ that I must address here: between 40% and 55% of the public believe that renewable energy like wind and solar is the cheapest. (Interestingly, the wide range of poll results suggests there is a great degree of uncertainty in the public’s mind). This is not true, of course, (given that these forms of energy are intermittent and need back-up power supplies, thus doubling their cost) but most people have not thought about this in detail and have been persuaded by the eco-liars that because the sun and the wind are free, these are cheap ways of producing energy. If Reform want to win the battle of ideas they must, MUST, expose this lie. And given that more people trust Reform to tell the truth than Labour (by 32% to 26% with 42% Don’t Knows) they can achieve this if they focus on it.

This is the secret to victory in this debate, as another polling company (Merlin Strategy) proved by asking two crucial questions. Firstly they asked: should the government prioritise reducing energy costs or improving the environment? Even though this question was clearly biased by falsely suggesting that net zero schemes ‘improve the environment’, 63% favoured prioritising reducing energy costs. And secondly they asked: should the government reverse or keep any climate decisions or schemes that have led to higher costs? And 58% favoured reversing schemes that have led to higher prices. So it is clear that ‘it’s the bills, stupid‘ that matter most. If Farage and Reform focus on the argument that net zero and renewable energy has pushed up bills, they will win the debate.

The last point I want to make on the net zero issue is this: the most effective form of persuasion is one that appears the most reasonable and the most willing to take on board the other person’s concerns. So rather than just rail against net zero in a belligerent and confrontational fashion the best approach is to point out that the UK has already cut its emissions by over 50%, and this is more than any other country. So the argument to make is that it is unfair and unreasonable to expect us to continue going further than others when this is costing us so much, and is having so little effect on the global climate, and that it is only right and fair that we now pause this policy and focus on cutting our costs, until all the other countries in the world have made the same efforts as we have. The beauty of this approach is that it focuses on fairness – which the British people love – and cutting costs – which the people are desperate to do – while not picking a fight with those who have been brainwashed into buying into net zero in theory.

The credibility factor

But it’s no use having the best policies in the world if people do not believe you will deliver them. And this is where we come to what I believe is Reform’s greatest strength: their credibility. 22% agree with what Nigel Farage says and believe he will “deliver on it”. Another 18% agree with him but doubt that he can deliver. Now you may think that 22% is not great, but here are the ratings for the other leaders: Starmer: 11% and 18%; Kemi Badenoch: 10% and 20%; and, to complete the picture, the clown Ed Davey: 9% and 19%. As you can see, Farage’s rating on this crucial measure is more than double that of Kemi Badenoch.

In fact, when you add up all those who believe Farage will deliver on his policies – including those who do not agree with them – Farage is on 31% and Starmer on 19% (with Badenoch on 18%). This is quite astonishing when you think about it: people think that Farage is far more willing and able to deliver what he says than the man who is actually running the country!

And here are the results from a different polling company, that focused on parties rather than individuals: their first finding was that 77% think that “things are getting worse”. So which party is most trusted to effect change? Labour, who are actually in government, or Reform? The answer is that 42% say Reform and only 26% Labour! And when asked which party was most trusted to “improve things for people like me” 35% said Reform and only 29% Labour, with 36% Don’t Knows – another huge lead for Reform (with a further third of the country open to persuasion).

Confidence in their ability to deliver is, by the way, one of the Tory party’s greatest weaknesses – which matters given that Reform and the Tories are going head-to-head for many of the same voters. At their party conference next month Kemi Badenoch will announce all the promises and policies she’s been working on for the last year, but who cares? Nobody’s listening. Nobody believes she will or can deliver on them! I can already see Farage airily waving his hand and dismissing all the Tory promises with a very justifiable ‘we’ve heard this all before‘ and a derisive shrug of the shoulders. And the public will agree with him.

And when you add up all those who agree with Farage (whether they think he will deliver or not) the total comes to 40%, compared to just 29% for Starmer and 30% for Badenoch. Again, this is a significant lead and shows that Reform’s support can go much higher. And to confirm this, here’s one final statistic which shows that Reform’s pool of potential supporters is much greater than the left-wing haters, who can only scream ‘racist’ and ‘fascist’, realise: when asked what word they most associated with the thought of a Reform government, 44% said either ‘hopeful’, ‘excited’ or ‘optimistic’, and a further 18% were not hostile but simply ‘ambivalent’, ‘curious’ or ‘uncertain’.

Icebergs ahead?

So Reform has the potential to rise up the polls much more. But will it? Or are there any threats on the horizon? Yes, there are.

Are you sitting comfortably? Good, because the next poll finding is going to blow your mind: 22% of Conservatives, 25% of Labour supporters, 21% of LibDems and 22% of those who say they probably will not vote all say that “Nigel Farage is not tough enough on immigration”. Yes, that’s how far the Overton Window has shifted! This isn’t a major problem for Reform at the moment as there isn’t any party with a more attractive proposition on the Right (and hence only 10% of non-Reform voters cite this as a main reason for not supporting the party), but it could become so if a new, more hardline right-wing party emerges.

At this point I don’t need psychic abilities to know what you are thinking. You are thinking Rupert Lowe, Ben Habib, Advance UK, and probably Tommy Robinson too. The likes of Nigel Farage, Zia Yusuf and Lee Anderson pooh pooh the electoral threat these represent. ‘Rupert Who?‘ is their standard response. But they should not be quite so quick to mock. Yes, ‘only’ 33% of the public have heard of Rupert Lowe , but this is in the same ballpark as those who’ve heard of Reform stalwarts like Richard Tice (37%) and Lee Anderson (36%), and a lot better than their new MP Sarah Pochin (19%). I can’t find any stats on Ben Habib and Advance UK, but suspect these are probably around the same as Rupert Lowe, and if Elon Musk – who is clearly well-disposed to Habib – were to bung Advance UK a few million quid, then who knows what might happen?

The main problem that Habib and Advance UK have is the failure of Rupert Lowe to join them. He seems happier being an independent, very good and hard-working constituency MP, and has given no indication that he will join a new party challenging Reform on the Right. This failure to ‘Unite the Right’ means that, unless Reform get their opportunity to govern Britain and then are seen to fail, Advance UK is unlikely to become a significant electoral force. Incidentally, Rupert Lowe’s unwillingness to participate in Advance UK does seem to suggest that, nice guy though he certainly is, with impeccable political views, he is not really suited to be in a party – which is the accusation that Reform have made of him. I suspend judgement however and wait to see what happens.

The final threat relates to the economy. I’m not talking about a Rachel Reeves wet-dream fantasy where the brainless bint manages to actually get things right – that’s never going to happen! No, I’m referring to the fact that public confidence in Reform’s ability to manage the economy is one of the party’s main weaknesses. With 27% of the public trusting them on this it certainly isn’t terrible, but it is one of their weakest issues. Media commentators – even those sympathetic to the party – mention this regularly, creating a climate of doubt in the public mind. And the Tories know this and have made it clear they intend to punch this bruise. So it’s vital that Reform address this quickly and with some major, confidence-building announcements.

Ironically, the highly-respected economics journalist Liam Halligan claims that both Nigel Farage and Richard Tice are among the most economically-literate MPs there are. And given the Liz Truss fiasco I would have thought that public confidence in the Tories’ ability in this field to be in rather short supply. Nevertheless, public and media perception is what it is, and Reform need to act. Fast.

If I was Farage I would immediately establish an ‘economics advisory board’, inviting economists such as, for instance, the aforementioned Liam Halligan (who is clearly, to say the least, sympathetic towards Reform), Roger Bootle, Allister Heath and even Patrick Minford to join. They don’t have to become party members, or even openly support it. Indeed, a degree of independence and neutrality would enhance the credibility of the group, and would demonstrate that Reform were serious about acting responsibly. I believe doing something like this would turn this weakness and threat into an instant strength and opportunity – it would immediately boost the party’s credibility and support, and would even encourage more major donors, who want to back a party that can govern well, to come forward and boost their funds.

Well, there is my detailed analysis of Reform’s Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats.

I hope you have found it interesting and useful. If you know anyone in Reform do forward it to them! And, of course, I will be very interested to hear YOUR views in the comments below!

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