Rayner will be PM by May, and that is terrible news for Britain
Starmer may be the worst prime minister of the modern era, but his party should be careful what it wishes for
It takes a special kind of desperation for Labour to respond to one scandal-hit prime minister by seriously considering replacing him with another scandal-hit figure. Yet that is precisely where the party now finds itself, with Angela Rayner reportedly “on manoeuvres” as Sir Keir Starmer clings to office amid the ever-expanding “Scandelson Saga”.
The irony is hard to miss. The self-styled woman of the people may yet be compelled to pause any leadership campaign pending the outcome of an HMRC investigation into her own tax affairs, centred on a £40,000 stamp duty bill she failed to pay. Even allies concede it would be awkward to front a so-called “government of service” while the subject of an active tax probe. Progressive stuff indeed.
Still, Labour backbenchers are said to be ready to rally behind Rayner as calls grow for Starmer to quit. The situation may be dire, but can it really be so desperate that the party is prepared to elevate Angela Rayner, of all politicians, to the highest office in the land?
Before getting to her profound unsuitability for the job, it is worth acknowledging why her ascent is suddenly so plausible. Three factors make her, almost by default, the frontrunner should Starmer fall.
First, the bonfire of Blairism now raging across Labour. Mandelson’s latest indiscretions have torched the last remaining fig leaf of “New” or “Blue” Labour respectability. The project associated with Tony Blair has been hung out to dry like a pair of the Dark Lord’s underpants, flapping in the wind on Epstein Island, leaving the party with nowhere to pivot except further Left. That shift suits a union-backed figure like Rayner perfectly, particularly given her enthusiasm for the expansive Employment Rights Act.
Second is Andy Burnham’s aborted chicken run back to Westminster. The so-called King of the North was, according to Labour List, the members’ runaway favourite. But with his path to Denton and Gorton blocked, the Manchester mayor is now locked out of any imminent leadership contest. That vacuum leaves Rayner as the next most popular choice among the membership.
Third is Labour’s perennial “woman problem”. Many in the party are clamouring for a female leader at almost any cost, and Rayner obviously benefits enormously from that pressure.
[…]
If Rayner makes it onto a final ballot of two or three candidates, she is overwhelmingly likely to win a membership vote. The bookmakers have noticed. Her odds have shortened dramatically –11/4 at Ladbrokes, overtaking Wes Streeting, now at 7/2. The only person who could outflank her on the Left is Ed Miliband, but he’s more likely to form the lesser part of a “dream ticket” with a more Right-wing candidate (if that isn’t a contravention of the Trade Descriptions Act).
The Telegraph: continue reading
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