Migration to surge despite Mahmood’s crackdown
‘Boriswave’ migrants will be behind rise by the end of Parliament, warns fiscal watchdog
Net migration is set to rise by the end of the Parliament despite visa crackdowns by Shabana Mahmood, forecasts have revealed.
The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) has warned the Home Secretary that net migration will hit 340,000 by 2030 because of “Boriswave” migrants remaining in the UK rather than returning to their home countries.
The projection would undermine Sir Keir Starmer’s election manifesto pledge to reduce net migration, as Labour heads into a general election campaign likely to be dominated by the number of foreigners living in Britain and the state of the economy.
The OBR projects that net migration – the figure for those entering the UK minus those leaving – will fall to a low of around 262,000 for the year to mid-2026, close to pre-Brexit levels of between 200,000 and 250,000.
This would be substantially down from the previously forecast peak of 906,000 in 2022 and 431,000 in 2024, driven largely by curbs on the rights of migrants to bring dependants to the UK, higher salary thresholds for foreign skilled workers and a rise in emigration.
However, the OBR forecasts that net migration will start to rise to 327,000 in 2029 and 340,000 in 2030 “as the latest evidence suggests immigrant stay rates in the UK under the new migration system have risen more than we assumed in March”.
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Of those who arrived in 2023, some 194,300 (or 47 per cent) switched from a study-related visa, with most choosing to work – a potential route to permanent residence in the UK.
The forecasts do not take into account Ms Mahmood’s plans to force migrants to wait up to 25 years before qualifying for indefinite leave to remain, or her plans to make refugee status temporary.
The OBR also called into question Labour’s pledge to stop the use of asylum hotels by the end of the current Parliament in 2029 and reduce asylum spending by £1bn.
It said the rise in small boat arrivals and cost of accommodating migrants suggested Labour was facing a £1.4bn increase in cost rather than a cut of £1bn.
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