Is Reform on the Slide?

Reform’s poll ratings have definitely gone down of late. Why is this? And what’s the answer?

BRITISH PATRIOT’S SUBSTACK

It’s not a blip; it’s a trend. For the last couple of months Reform’s poll ratings have edged downwards, while those of the Tories have edged up. Nothing dramatic, and both parties have had both ups and downs, but overall the trend is unmistakable, as you can see in the following graph:

Now let me be clear: If you’re a Reform supporter (even if only grudgingly, on the basis that they’re the best of a bad lot), there’s no need to panic. But it is reasonable to ask why this downturn has occurred and what can and needs to be done to arrest it and even reverse it.

Some people will say this has been caused by the Guardian campaign against Farage, making allegations about what he is supposed to have said when he was a schoolboy. I think not. Firstly, not a single reader of the Guardian would ever have voted Reform anyway, and while the accusations have been more widely reported in the media, these are only credible to those who already hated Farage. Why did all these accusers wait for decades before coming out of the woodwork? How could anyone possibly remember exactly what was said and by whom so long ago? Even if the accusations were true, should someone be attacked because of what they said when they were a child? How fair is it to judge someone based on today’s values, when the events took place so long ago and in a very different social and political climate? All these thoughts will swirl in people’s heads and if they are sympathetic to Farage and Reform they will dismiss the accusations as ‘old hat’ and irrelevant.

I suspect other accusations, such as Labour persistently claiming that Reform are anti-British ‘Putin’s puppets’, and the Tories attacking their performance in those councils which they now control, have had more impact. The story about Farage ‘admiring’ Putin has been rolling on ever since 2014 when he was asked by a journalist which world leader he most admired. He replied: “as an operator, but not as a human being, I would say Putin“. This was a silly answer to give, as it allowed deceitful political opponents to misleadingly allege that he admired Putin, without explaining the context or the qualification. But this claim has been going for so long that it had become a tired old cliché which no longer carried any weight – until the very unfortunate recent conviction of Nathan Gill (Reform’s former leader in Wales) for taking bribes in order to make speeches supporting pro-Russian politicians in Ukraine. This has turbo-charged Labour’s ‘pro-Putin’ accusations and lent them credence.

The criticism of Reform having failed to deliver their promises in the councils they control is also superficially credible, given that they will need to put up council tax rather than reduce it, as many of their voters had been hoping.

The honest truth is, however, that both the accusations are completely unfair. One bad apple does not a barrel make. Farage has repeatedly criticised Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and his deputy, Tice, has personally taken aid over there. And as for their councils, the fact is that almost all council spending is non-discretionary and cannot therefore be cut – and the current budgets were, in any case, set by the previous administrations before Reform took over in May.

There is, however, a genuine criticism that can be made against Farage – and which is the cause of Reform’s drop in support: Nigel is asleep at the wheel.

Let’s look back to how Reform took the lead, in order to see what lessons can be learnt. We can see from the graph above that after the election Reform grew steadily, overtaking the Conservatives in February of this year (2025). The country was angry with the Tories for their 14 years of failure and betrayal. They had been rejected at the general election and nobody wanted to hear from them. This created a vacuum that allowed Reform to seize the public’s attention. The more they heard from them the more they liked what they heard.

Having overtaken the Tories, Reform were suddenly a credible political force. The one weapon the Conservative party has always had to stymie and crush all right-wing opponents had gone: the “wasted vote” argument. You know the one: ‘don’t vote for them (even though you like them more) because they can’t win and will let Labour in, and Labour are even worse than us!’

Now it was the Tories who were the ‘vote splitters’. So at the local elections in May, Reform achieved a stunning success, gaining 677 councillors and taking control of 10 councils. This boosted their credibility even more, and their support rose further. Then, during the summer, when the other parties went on holiday, Reform had the good sense to keep working, and once again gained control of the media agenda, getting publicity day after day.

And this, you see, is key. You need to understand that you are not normal. Sorry, but you’re not. Most people, you see, are not interested in politics. They don’t follow the news closely. They don’t know what each party stands for, and what’s more they don’t care. The only time they think about politics is when an election rolls round, and since they don’t know who to vote for they generally stick to the party they’ve always voted for in the past. So for a new party to win their vote they have to work hard – really hard – to gain their attention.

Reform did this well. And their vote rose accordingly. But the situation has now changed.

Firstly, the Tories woke up. Kemi Badenoch had deliberately adopted a policy of ‘radio silence’, believing that nobody was willing to listen to the Tories so soon after their election defeat, and that this period should be spent developing a new set of policies which could be launched in 2026 or 2027. But she had not taken into account that this would allow Reform to step in and steal all her potential voters. The Tory grassroots saw the problem and were very annoyed. They looked at Robert Jenrick – who was active on social media and attracting a lot of attention – and believed that this was the way to go. Kemi suddenly realised she had royally screwed up and reversed her tactics, using the Conservative party conference to launch her stamp duty policy. Since then, she has been active in the media, gaining daily column inches and broadcast minutes.

At the same time, for some incomprehensible, imbecilic and asinine reason, Reform have done the complete opposite, and are barely making any effort to get involved in the daily political conversation. As a result, the right-leaning electorate is beginning to forget about Reform and is looking at the Tories once again.

Let me give you a couple of examples of what I mean, and of where Reform is going wrong.

Erasmus

Take Labour’s decision to rejoin the EU’s Erasmus programme. This is the programme which allows students of one participating country to spend a year in another participating country. In principle, this is actually quite a good idea. But in practice it’s a complete waste of time – and money. Britain’s money. Money which we could spend in much more profitable ways.

The problems with Erasmus are several. Firstly, far more EU students want to come to UK universities than UK students want to go to EU universities. This is for a variety of reasons, such as what the universities have to offer, as well as the language difficulties. Secondly, the programme has expanded through the usual megalomanic mission creep from one limited to higher-education students to a much more all-inclusive scheme, including cultural events, youth and sports organisations, teachers, other staff, school pupils, apprentices, trainees, and uncle Tom Cobley and all. And finally, the way each country’s financial contribution to the programme is calculated works against the UK, as it is based on Gross National Income and population, rather than the number of students who participate.

In other words, as far as the UK is concerned the cost of the programme is much too high and the benefits are much too little. This is why when we left the EU we rejected their entreaties to remain members of Erasmus (it does have other non-EU countries, such as Iceland, Norway, Serbia and Turkey), on the basis that it was not good value for money. Labour, however, are desperate to get the UK back into the EU as much as possible, so they ignored the practical objections and rejoined. In order to provide a fig-leaf, the EU offered a 30% ‘discount’ (but for the first year only!).

This may sound generous, but it really, really isn’t! Even with this ‘introductory discount’ the initial cost will be a whopping £570 million just for the first year (2027). And thereafter not only do we pay the extra 30%, but this also then increases in 2028 by more than an extra 50%. So what then will the cost be to the UK? A staggering £1.25 BILLION A YEAR. Yes, that’s billion with a B – not million!

And remember this: when we were in the EU the cost of the Erasmus programme to the UK was around £250 million a year. So we are now going to be paying some 5 TIMES MORE. Wow, what a great deal Labour have negotiated! Once again the UK has been completely screwed by the EU – with the active complicity of the treacherous British government. We are ruled by scum traitors who need to be HANGED.

As I said though, having a scheme which allows our top uni students to get a broader education is actually a good idea. So when we left the EU and decided not to stay in Erasmus the Conservative government set up a replacement scheme known as Turing. Great! But then they went and ruined it all by succumbing to the woke left-wing mind-virus and making this not about excellence, but about ‘inclusivity‘ and they deliberately twisted Turing so that it discriminated in favour of those deemed to be “disadvantaged” – although of course this then advantaged them, meaning they should then have been disqualified, but being Left-wing Tory Cretins they were unable to see the inherent madness of their own programme!

What we need is a British scheme which is targeted at the most able students, and is limited to sending these to foreign universities ranked in the Top 40 of the world. And only TWO of these are in the EU! For the record, of the top 40 universities in the world, 6 are in the UK, 2 in the EU (both in Germany), 2 in Switzerland, 2 in Singapore, 1 in Japan, 1 in Australia, 1 in Canada, 6 in China (including 1 in Honk Kong) and 19 in the US.

So what you might expect is that Reform would pledge that they will leave the Erasmus scheme and restore the Turing one – but at the same time both improve this (by limiting it to the world’s top 40 universities and focusing it on our top students), and also expand it (by increasing the budget from the current £78 million to, say, £200 million). Such an announcement would show that Reform have concrete policies, that they will reverse Labour’s treason, that they have sensible economic policies (my suggestion would save over a BILLION pounds a year!), and would win lots of press and broadcast media attention.

The Tories did indeed line up to criticise Labour’s Erasmus plans, but what did Reform’s education spokesman or EU spokesman have to say? NOTHING. This might, of course, be partly due to Reform not having any Education or EU spokesmen! But neither did Farage, or Tice, or any of their other MPs say anything. Complete silence. Pathetic.

Ajax

Or take the scandal of the Ajax military programme. In case you have not been following this, it is the latest in a long list of Ministry of Defence great procurement failures. It was meant to be Britain’s new fleet of armoured vehicles. The contract to design and build this was awarded in 2010 (yes, 15 years ago!) to the US company General Dynamics. This was the first betrayal, as the British company BAE already had an existing, successful, tried and tested vehicle, the CV90. So why did the government prefer to award the contract to a foreign company? It then took four years just to sign the contract, which was initially for £5.5 billion – but then, after the contract had been signed – went up to £6.3 billion!

The first vehicles were originally due in 2017, with a planned entry into service by 2019. They are still not ready. Testing has been plagued with problems, based on grossly excessive noise and vibrations. These are so bad that British servicemen using the prototype Ajax vehicles were hospitalised and permanently physically harmed. Despite this, the government went ahead and 165 vehicles have been built (out of a planned 589). But each time soldiers try to use them they are once again left permanently deafened and crippled with joint pains from the unbearable noise and vibrations. Yes, we are now paying an American company to produce military equipment that eliminates our own soldiers! You really couldn’t make this up.

But still the government, and the MoD, try to cover up this scandal and make it disappear. So on 6 November Luke Pollard, the minister for defence procurement, announced that Ajax was “a vehicle that is safe, effective and truly cutting-edge which will be recognised by allies and adversaries alike”. Err, no it wasn’t. Just a few days later it was revealed that after an exercise on Salisbury Plain 31 soldiers had to be taken to hospital because of injuries caused by excessive and intolerable noise and vibration. Our allies are despairing and our adversaries are laughing. Ajax is a complete disaster. Why haven’t the noise and vibration problems been fixed? Because, believe it or not, General Dynamics cannot even find out what is causing the problems in the first place! There is no prospect of a solution even remotely on the horizon.

So we have a programme that is already 15 years old, and nowhere near to delivering a fighting vehicle that can actually, err, fight. All we have is a record of delays, failure and lies. Yes, let’s be absolutely clear, when Pollard said that Ajax had “left its troubles behind” and was “demonstrably safe” he was LYING. And despite not having a working vehicle the government has already paid General Dynamics £5 BILLION. This is, of course, not just a Labour failure, but a Tory one too. Although the MoD paused payments to General Dynamics in December 2020 due to the safety concerns they resumed them in March 2023, despite the problems self-evidently NOT having been fixed!

So what has Reform’s response to this massive scandal been? NOTHING. Complete silence. Not a dickie bird. It might help if they had a defence spokesman, of course, but they don’t have. So important events happen, scandals unfold, and Reform have nothing to say about them. How utterly useless.

This was the genesis of the rupture between Reform and Rupert Lowe. He wanted the party to professionalise and appoint spokesmen for all the major offices of state. And he was right. But Farage and Zia Yusuf wanted to keep everything to themselves. So when there are major stories the sad fact is that Reform’s voice just isn’t heard. Reform are making themselves invisible, and are therefore becoming irrelevant and losing support.

And there’s more

Erasmus and Ajax are just two examples. I could give plenty more, such as the doctors’ strikes, the train stabbings, the Budget, the abolition of juries for many trials, the Ukraine war or the incursions by Russian spy ships and submarines into UK waters. On all these issues, what is Reform’s position? We don’t know. Because they can’t be bothered to tell us. Indeed, do they know themselves? Probably not!

Or take the latest scandal: the government lobbying for the release from prison in Egypt of Alaa Abd el-Fattah, and welcoming him to Britain. This man is a self-confessed White-hating racist and wannabe terrorist. This is a great opportunity to attack not just Labour but also the Tories, who were the ones who gave him British citizenship in 2021. And yes, it’s true that Farage has criticised both Labour and the Tories, and said that he has reported this ghastly man to the counter-terrorism police, but he has not promised to rescind his British citizenship and deport him. Indeed, Farage has set his face against rescind UK citizenship from undesirable scum, and this was another bone of contention between him and Rupert Lowe, who is a strong advocate of doing this.

No wonder Elon Musk has called Farage ‘weak sauce’! He needs to adopt a much more aggressive tone and policy, not just on immigration, but on other issues too. Badenoch hit the headlines for her very personal attack on Rachel Reeves, but all we got from Farage, and Tice, was silence. Lee Anderson’s ‘Rachel from accounts’ jibe was very successful, but this was long, long ago. We need more aggressive attacks against Labour – and also the Conservatives. Where is the fire in Reform’s belly? They seem to be snoozing when they should be raging.

The only opposition to the government comes from the Tories, and this is why their support has edged up, with Kemi Badenoch’s approval ratings having jumped from net +19 with 2024 Tories to net +46 and having even increased with 2024 Reform voters, from -24 to just -2.

It’s not as if Reform don’t have perfectly good potential spokesmen in the wings, just waiting to be given the opportunity to seize the agenda. Richard Tice is very good on economic issues. David Bull is a genuine doctor and could be their NHS spokesman. Rear Admiral Chris Parry is tailor-made to speak on all defence issues, and Sarah Pochin could be given Justice portfolio. But no. Nigel Farage and Zia Yusuf want to be the only ones to say anything. And usually they say nothing.

Reform only seem to be energised when an issue arises that affects them personally, such as Labour’s decision to cancel yet more local elections. Yes, this is scandalous, but it’s not what worries the public most. They are most concerned about the cost of living. This comes way ahead of the second most important issue, immigration (both legal and illegal), and the third issue on peoples’ minds is the NHS. And of these three issues Reform only have a popular story to tell on immigration. This just isn’t good enough.

Reform need to have policies on the issues that the general public care about most, rather than seeming obsessed with their own self-interest. I have previously said that they need to set up an advisory board of respected economists to give them credibility for their economic policies. They still haven’t done so. This is just arrogant, lazy and incompetent.

But there’s still hope

Reform are doing well in local elections, with their increasing membership giving them more foot soldiers, able to deliver more leaflets and knock on more doors, so that they are able to remind people that they exist. And as most people are angry with Labour and have not forgiven the Tories, Reform are taking seats from both these parties. And next year there will not only be local elections in England (where Reform should do very well), but there will also be the Senedd election in Wales and the election to the Scottish Parliament north of the border. In Wales Reform are likely to come either first or second (behind Plaid Cymru) and in Scotland they could also come second (behind the SNP). In both cases this will be seen as a great achievement and will enhance their credibility as the main alternative to Labour across the UK.

You also need to remember that Labour are intent on lowering the voting age to 16. They believe this will help them, but they are in for a shock. Both Reform and the Greens are very popular among this age group, and if Labour follow Australia’s example of banning under-18s from social media (as they are thinking of doing) this will be their death knell.

So Reform have the opportunity to increase their electoral credibility as a result of the local, Welsh and Scottish elections, and to grab a large slice of the new voters that will be on the electoral register come the 2019 general election. And they do still have time to wake up and start appointing spokesmen for all the major cabinet positions, so that they can be involved in the daily public debate. So as Corporal Jones used to say: “Don’t Panic!”

We shall have to wait and see how Reform react to their dip in the polls. Yes, there’s still a long way to go before the next general election, but as a new party Reform are the most vulnerable to the problem of lack of credibility and being seen as a wasted vote, splitting the opposition to Labour. The only way they can win is by being the front-runners. If they fall behind they won’t come back. So just like Avis, the rent a car company, they need to ‘try harder‘ than the Tories. Get the popcorn – this is going to get interesting!

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This article (IS REFORM ON THE SLIDE?) was created and published by British Patriot’s Substack and is republished here under “Fair Use”