In ten charts, Labour’s complete collapse
MATT GOODWIN
NO, YOU’RE not imagining it. Sir Keir Starmer and the Labour government really are out of touch with the British people and are imploding in the polls.
To show you just how badly the government is doing, only 13 months after coming to power, let me walk you through Labour’s collapse in ten charts and show you why this is one of the most unpopular governments in British history.
First, the national polls. Since coming to power little more than a year ago, Labour’s support in the polls has collapsed by around ten points and the party has been replaced at the top of the polls by Nigel Farage and Reform.
This week Reform, on 28 per cent, hold a seven-point lead over Labour, which is on just 21 per cent of the vote, and an 11-point lead over the Tories, who are still languishing on 17 per cent. Starmer and Labour are retaining only 57 per cent of people who voted for them last year as many have defected to the Lib Dems, Greens, or Reform.
Chart 1
Second, leadership. Keir Starmer, though never loved by the country, really has become an especially unpopular prime minister.
This summer his net rating has crashed toMINUS 44, with more than two-thirds of the entire country now thinking unfavourably of him.
This makes Starmer one of the most unpopular prime ministers on record, even if you won’t hear much about this among a soft-left media that had a total meltdown when Conservative Liz Truss plummeted to similarly low numbers.
Chart 2
Third, the direction of the country. Long considered one of the most reliable measures of how people are thinking and feeling, when voters are asked whether they think Britain is heading in the right or wrong direction, an overwhelming majority, roughly two-thirds, now say ‘things are heading in the wrong direction’. Not even one in five people, just 17 per cent, think things in Britain are heading in the right direction – a damning assessment of the Labour government.
Chart 3
Fourth, this sense of national decline and deterioration is linked closely in the public mindset with Keir Starmer. Nearly half of all people now believe Keir Starmer ‘has changed Britain for the worse’, while only 19 per cent think he has ‘changed Britain for the better’. More people think Starmer has had a negative impact on the country than the share who felt the same about Boris Johnson in late 2021.
Chart 4
Fifth, competence. It is often said among pollsters that what determines the future of a party and government is the extent to which voters see them as competent. Here too there is bad news for Labour as the share who view the Labour government as incompetent has been surging upwards, reaching close to 60 per cent of all voters. In fact, not even one in five Brits think the Labour government is competent.
Chart 5
Sixth, at the heart of this is what is now the top issue facing the country – mass immigration. I talk about this issue a lot not just because I personally think it is crucial but also because voters say it is the most important issue in British politics, ahead of the economy and the NHS. It’s not just that the British people are concerned about it; it’s that they are convinced the Labour government is doing a very bad job at managing immigration. Some 80 per cent say Labour is handling the top issue in the country ‘badly’ while just 12 per cent think Labour is doing ‘well’ on an issue that looks set to define the next election.
Chart 6
Seventh, the economy. Amid the most severe cost-of-living crisis in this country since the Second World War, more than three-quarters of the entire country now say Labour is managing the economy ‘badly’ —which is up 16-points a year ago. Only 15 per cent think Rachel Reeves and Labour are managing the economy ‘well’.
Chart 7
Eighth, look too at the long-term trend. Under Labour, the British people’s optimism about the economy has slumped to one of the lowest levels on record. The chart below shows you levels of economic optimism and pessimism since the late 1970s. With a current score of MINUS 56, meaning the vast majority of people are expecting the economy to get worse, not better, Labour has the worst score one year into office since Margaret Thatcher in 1980.
Chart 8
Ninth, Labour’s promises. Pollsters Ipsos recently looked at how voters feel about Labour’s specific promises or ‘missions’ in government. As above, they found widespread disillusionment, with only small minorities thinking Labour is doing ‘a good job’ at delivering on its key missions, such as building an NHS for the future, halving crime, and kickstarting growth.
Chart 9
Tenth, to return to what I said at the outset, is the perception of Labour as being out of touch with the British people confined to a small minority of people or is this view held widely across the country? As you can see below, it is very much the latter. Today, two-thirds of Britain now view Labour as ‘out of touch’ while just 14 per cent think it is ‘in touch’. These really are disastrous numbers and reflect how, once again, many of the things we saw right here in this newsletter reflect the much wider mood out there in the country at large.
Chart 10
This is a government, in other words, that is seen widely as having lost control of the national economy, our borders, levels of immigration, is seen as incompetent and out of touch, and led by somebody who is deeply unpopular and making Britain a worse place to live. This is not only me saying this – it is what we can see in nationally representative opinion polls and surveys. Britain, in short, is heading for major political change in the years ahead as the British people have clearly, already, put Keir Starmer and this Labour government on notice.
This article appeared in Matt Goodwin on August 13, 2025, and is republished by kind permission.
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