Dear Nigel…

Do Reform UK’s Policing pledges stand up?

DOMINIC ADLER

Nigel Farage is, as usual, dominating the news agenda. As I write, he’s calling for the Chief Constable of Essex Police to resign over the asylum protests in Epping. Reform UK also made the front pages announcing their law and order policy. The headline grabber? A piece of political trolling too tempting (we might contract long prison sentences to countries like El Salvador) for journalists to resist.

I shall refrain from commenting much on this gem (I recently wrote this piece on sentencing for UnHerd). I will say, however, I think Reform’s temporary ‘Nightingale Prisons’ idea is sound. Except, of course, the proposal runs contrary to reams of pages of law, procedure, protocol, Human Rights folderol and civil service precedent… and thus will never happen. We shall return to this theme later, which runs through Reform UK’s policy like a stick of seaside rock.

I don’t immediately recoil with horror when Nigel Farage appears on the TV. Am I sceptical? Yes, absolutely. On the other hand, I’m a right-of-centre, small ‘c’ conservative and failed libertarian. I hail from a socioeconomic cohort Reform targets – Southern English. Pale, Stale and Male. I grew up with victory in the Falklands, Margaret Thatcher and the SAS storming Embassies. I’d happily fix bayonets for King and Country. I’d, truth be told, happily take a three-bottle lunch with Nige at Boisdale. I’m sure it would be convivial.

However, I find Farage’s politics… unconvincing. My natural contrarian streak bridles at populist bromides. Yet, here’s Nigel! Cometh the hour, cometh the man. That fabled beast of political analysis, ‘the average voter’, cares little about Reform’s shameless ideological inconsistency – a sprig of Thatcher here, a sprinkle of Harold Wilson there.

The average voter knows, at a primal level, Britain’s fucked – and Blairite Neo-liberals (many of whom were Tories) fucked it for them. Nigel Paul Farage, a Kentish Man, might be an unlikely knight in beer-stained armour. But he’s the only champion they have. And, as they say in the US, shit’s getting real. The ridiculously well-connected political journalist / source-handler, Tim Shipman, reports how civil servants – knowing which way the wind’s blowing – have covertly approached Reform UK with advice on Getting Stuff Done.

Talk about the Chinese Curse, eh? As such, in my self-appointed role as policing commentator, I’d be remiss if I didn’t cast my eye over their policies. As it is, there isn’t enough analysis. Simply too much theatre. The Media homed in on Reform’s usual barroom talking points (both sides can’t help themselves). For example, Sarah Pochin MP, Reform’s justice spokesperson, told the BBC;

I never feel comfortable actually seeing two female officers together. I’d much rather see a great big strapping male police officer with a female.

Blimey!

Now, I’m not dismissing barroom talking points. Among the boozy nonsense, there’s occasionally a nugget of wisdom to be found. But, as drinkers will concede, chewing the fat over another pint… the Devil’s in the detail. And, sadly, today’s angry, frustrated, piss-off Britain isn’t interested in details. Which is, to a certain extent, the fault of the details people for getting it wrong. Instead, politicians offer lazy promises nobody believes anyway. Like ‘Smash the Gangs’, right?

Is Reform’s hyperbole any better – once you dig into the detail? As Jack Reacher says…

They really do.

Here, then, are Reform UK’s pledges, prefaced CRITICAL REFORMS NEEDED IN THE FIRST 100 DAYS. I note this really translates into ‘stuff we’d like to initiate within our first 100 days’ but Reform are a political party. And political parties are, by virtue, congenital liars. Yes, I’m a fan of H.L. Mencken.

Pledge 1. Commence Increase in Police Numbers

Gnomic promises of ‘More Bobbies on the Beat’ always set my teeth on edge, but the numbers game is pitched at our fabled ‘average voter.’ The last Conservative government promised an ‘uplift’ of 20,000 (this was pouring water into a colander; the Tories trashed the police and lost 20,000 officers during the Cameron and May era). Labour promised 6000 officers for local policing, but 1500 of those are unpaid special constables or non-sworn PCSOs.

Reform are promising 40,000 (fully costed) new front line officers over a five-year Parliament.

Yes, numbers are important, but here’s a comparison. Imagine you run a pie factory (I use this example because I like pies). You have enough staff to, theoretically, make 100,000 pies a day. In fact you only make 10,000. Why? The pies must go through a tortuous QA process designed by the Marquis de Sade. There’s a legion of pie-inspectors and pie-consultants double-guessing every ingredient and pie-making process. Your management team admits another hundred pie-makers would make hardly any difference. What do you do? Well, before I bothered hiring anyone else, I’d sort out the pie-obstructionism hindering productivity.

This is the problem with policing. 40,000 new cops would still be wading through treacle – yes, I’m talking about the Human Rights Act, PACE, RIPA, the IOPC, NPCC, quangos and the activist class infecting our judiciary.

And, of course, the training pipeline for police officers (especially given Reform’s other promises) is lengthy and expensive. You can’t simply defrost a new packet of coppers. Then there’s the issue of 40,000 sprog coppers running amok – who’s going to lead, supervise and mentor them? Let alone vet, recruit and train them. A panicky arses-on-seats recruitment drive will likely cause more problems than it solves. It certainly did when New Labour fast-tracked PCSOs into the service in 2007/2008 (I saw the vetting debacle myself).

Dom’s Verdict: Must try harder – I want to see evidence Reform understands the issues hindering effectiveness. As it is, this pledge is manifesto candy, designed to invoke warm and fuzzy Dixonian nostalgia to voters of a certain age.

Dixon was a fictional TV character, Nigel. Hardly anyone under 55 remembers him. Let him go.

Pledge 2. Commence Zero Tolerance Policing

Yes please, because it can work if done properly. However, Reform’s details are vague, with generalities such as ‘clampdown on all crime and antisocial behaviour’ and ‘increase Stop and Search substantially.’

‘Zero Tolerance’ policing, however, isn’t a magic bullet. To continue the pie factory analogy, delivering zero tolerance-flavour pies involves even more barriers to productivity. Central government can’t wave wands to make police forces change their policing style. There are PCCs. Mayors. A complex web of governance and accountability. There’s no mention of this whatsoever. The ‘average voter’ is aware of this, even if they’re too busy for fine detail. They are perfectly capable of understanding the nuance behind a simple argument like ‘we’ll remove the barriers stopping the police from doing their job robustly.’

It’s why the New Labour strap line ‘Tough on Crime, Tough on the Causes of Crime’ was so clever. Yes, it was a lie, but we still remember it. It also helped a party not known for its law and order credentials win an election.

Dom’s Verdict: On the right track, but again, details matter. Even in a Joe-Public-friendly manifesto. How will you support officers confronted by a Human Rights blob that’s been festering since 1997?

Pledge 3. New Police Leadership and Recruitment Regime

These pledges includes ‘a strong preference for ex-military officers and personnel’ joining the police, ‘high standards of fitness and presentation for front line officers’ and to ‘sack Chief Constables that allow two-tier policing.’

I’m a stalwart supporter of HM armed forces. Many former servicemen and women make excellent coppers. Then again, some are (as they say in the army) complete choppers and / or lizards. Again, this is a popular barroom refrain: ‘get the army to sort it out.’ Spoiler alert! The army is as hollowed-out as the police, if not more so. I wrote about the old chestnut of a military-style officer corps for policing here. I noted how;

There really is a deeply-held belief struggling civilian police services, made up of pusillanimous working-class oiks, need nothing more than an injection of stiff-upper lipped army officers to rescue them from perfidy… HM Forces are hardly immune from poor leadership and social justice mania either.

Fitness and smartness? Okay, that’s fair enough, although how you’re meant to look smart in modern police uniform is beyond me. I wrote about it here.

As for ‘two-tier policing’? Define please. Do they mean, ‘alter a thirty-year old mindset, deeply embedded in the public sector, involving Year Zero levels of structural and cultural change’? Spell it out. At the moment, it looks like a dog-whistle. A simple, ‘We will guarantee a return to a simple principle – policing without fear or favour.’

Dom’s Verdict: Must try harder. ‘Two-Tier Policing’ is catchy, but it means different things to different people.

Pledge 4. More Bobbies on the Beat

Reform pledge to ‘ensure that police return to the beat and use better technology and stop wasting time on paperwork. Allow PCSOs to become police officers before the role is phased out.’

More platitudes. What technology? Policing has changed. Reform, again, appears to retreat to its mythical Dixonian comfort zone. It isn’t 1950, Nigel.

As for PCSOs? PCSOs weren’t hired to be cops. They were hired to be PCSOs. I’m old enough to remember the days before PCSOs and was always sceptical of the project. Not all PCSOs are going to make good police officers. Say so.

Dom’s Verdict: ‘Less paperwork’ has been a mantra of policing since before I joined – it multiplied anyway. It would be easier to identify why the paperwork exists (I’ve mentioned why above) and get rid of the blockage. I agree with the PCSO phase-out, though. I’d also have liked Reform to propose a police reserve to replace the Special Constabulary.

Pledge 5. Common Sense Policing not ‘Woke’ Policing

Reform pledge to ‘scrap all Diversity, Equality and Inclusion (DE&I) roles and regulations to stop two-tier policing. Overhaul the Independent Office of Police Conduct (IOPC) so that the police complaints system becomes more accountable and works for the law-abiding public.’

I’ve written about institutional capture in policing and DE&I here and here. As such, I’m not sure Reform fully understands complex relationship between DE&I, police policy-making and ‘two-tier’ policing. Again, the art of manifesto-writing should be to capture the spirit of complex change using simple language.

As for the IOPC? I’ve discussed police misconduct procedures here. I wrote for UnHerd on the IOPC and police shootings here. In principle, I agree with Reform’s ‘direction of travel.’

Dom’s Verdict: This reads like a right-wing inversion of an assumption Labour made in 2024. ‘We’re not the Tories, so QED everything will be better… because we’re in charge.’ Look how that turned out. Yes, begin scaling down DE&I. Make HR ‘Personnel’ again, and send the Pronoun Police back to uniform (they’d soon leave the Job). Don’t think, however, things will magically improve just because.

Happily, English courts are beginning to realise activism is inimical to policing fairly.

Not a pledge, but an aspiration…

Reform say that they intend to ‘de-politicise the College of Policing. Prioritise crime prevention, discipline, public service and high standards of strength and fitness among trainees. Replace degree-standard entry with an entrance exam. Require officers to complete a 2-year probationary period. Stricter entry requirements.’

I covered much of this in my response to Reform’s pledge to increase police numbers. I’ve also written about the controversial direct-entry and graduate schemes into policing here and here. Ultimately, Reform aren’t going to magically attract better quality recruits without a better pay and conditions. Where’s the money coming from?

As for the College of Policing. I’m not sure it can be reformed without a revolutionary ‘Year Zero’ moment. Or demolition. As it stands? I’d set up a purely operational national police development school, along the lines of our military staff colleges.

Sadly, something I hoped Reform might mention is missing. And that’s setting police forces free. Looking at Reform’s pledges, there’s an easily identifiable theme – policing has been crushed by the dead hand of central government and overweening procedural diktat. Again, this is a complex topic, requiring a pithy explanation.

I’d say something along the lines of, ‘We pledge to protect police impartiality and independence. As politicians, we’ll know when to step back and let the police do their job protecting us all and keeping the King’s Peace.’

Incidentally, if you’re interested in what a ‘Free Force’ might look like, I wrote about what happened in a parallel universe where I was put in charge of a police force.

Let me know what you thought of Reform UK’s pledges. And don’t worry, if and when Kemi ever releases any policy, I’ll be taking a look. The Tories helped kill policing. Can they atone? Or will they ever get the chance again?

I’ll be back soon, but possibly posting less frequently, unless of course events overtake us. The police might not be ready for a ‘summer of unrest,’ but I am. I will be covering anything that happens.

Let’s hope it doesn’t come to pass.

Then I can carry on attempting to write another book. As any writer will tell you, its the most frustrating, masochistic and financially unrewarding task a person can undertake. Can’t help it though. It’s an affliction.

Take care,

Dom

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This article (Dear Nigel…) was created and published by Dominic Adler and is republished here under “Fair Use”

Farage Targets Law & Order 

FRANK HAVILAND

Despite consistently riding high in the opinion polls, Nigel Farage’s Reform UK is beset by two major challenges which could scupper victory come the next general election. Firstly, there is Farage’s obvious inability to share the limelight – as witnessed by historic high-profile fallouts with colleagues all the way back to the days of UKIP, and more recently with Ben Habib and Rupert Lowe. Secondly, and arguably more seriously, there is his Achilles’ heel – Islam. Farage may have made his political bread and butter by his tough stance on immigration, but many supporters feel this has softened of late – particularly via comments such as mass deportations are not his “ambition”, and “If we alienate the whole of Islam, we will lose”. 

Farage’s latest incursion into law and order however, could be just the tonic to steady the Reform UK ship. At a press conference in central London on Monday, Farage promised to make Reform UK “the toughest party on law and order and on crime that this country has ever seen”. Here is a brief summary of the major policy points:

Crime reduction

Overall, Farage has pledged that Reform UK would aim to halve crime within five years if they win the next general election.

Policing

Farage aims to recruit 30,000 additional police officers over a five-year term, with a focus on fast-tracking military veterans and prioritising ‘higher and physically tougher’ standards for officers to enhance the police street presence.

Pop-up custody centres

Reform would establish 100 temporary custody centres in crime hotspots, to fast-track arrests and processing. The estimated cost is £80 million per year. 

Zero-tolerance policing

Modelled on Rudy Giuliani’s successful focus on low-level crime in New York, Farage plans to prosecute all crime, including every shoplifting offence (reversing the perceived leniency of the £200 shoplifting threshold) to restore public confidence in policing. Farage confirmed that all violent crime and knife possession would result in jail sentences, with expanded use of stop-and-search in high crime areas as a deterrent to knife crime. 

An end to early release

Farage has vowed to end the early release scheme for serious violent, sexual or knife crime offenders, ensuring there are no suspended sentences. 

An end to DEI roles

Reform promises to eliminate diversity, equity and inclusion roles in policing to redirect resources toward frontline law enforcement, arguing that such roles distract from core policing duties. 

Life sentences for persistent offenders

Farage promises to impose life imprisonment for drug traffickers, and repeat violent offenders. 

Prisons

If elected, Reform UK is looking to create 30,000 new prison places, including 12,400 for lower-category offenders built on Ministry of Defence land within 18 months at an estimated cost of £1 billion.

Deporting foreign criminals

In addition to the UK-side increase in prison places, Reform will aim to deport 10,400 foreign prisoners to their countries of origin – thereby freeing up British prison space, and reducing the cost to the UK taxpayer. Notably, these negotiations would necessitate the acceptance of British offenders held abroad. 

Overseas prisons

Farage intends to send serious offenders such as murderers and paedophiles to countries like El Salvador and Albania, thereby creating an additional 10,000 prison places at an annual cost of £250 million. 

Cost

All of which in total, Reform estimates will cost the taxpayer £17.4 billion over a five-year term. This would be funded by scrapping HS2, Net Zero policies, and reducing the size of the public sector. 

You can watch the full press conference here:

On the back of Monday’s press conference, Farage also made a surprising incursion into Essex Police’s handling of last week’s protest outside the Bell Hotel in Epping, where he came out unequivocally in favour of the protestors. The protest was sparked, unsurprisingly, as yet another ‘asylum seeker’ allegedly sexually assaulted a 14-year-old girl. 

While this will have been music to the ears of the party faithful and Farage-sceptics alike, this is notable because Farage has always been careful to eschew political alignment with the so-called ‘far-right’ – famously so in the case of Tommy Robinson. 

Perhaps this is evidence that the Overton Window has widened sufficiently on the issue of immigration, that Farage now feels comfortable enough to re-embrace his former tough stance. On the other hand, this may be a more cynical calculation to avoid haemorrhaging votes to the right. With Restore Britain (Rupert Lowe’s new movement) and Advance UK (Ben Habib’s fledgling party) gaining support among former diehard Reform UK supporters – and possibly about to be joined by Tommy Robinson himself – it is unlikely there is no politicking involved from Farage’s side. 

Either way, Reform and Farage are clearly reading the room and the nation correctly on the matter of law and order. At least for the foreseeable future, this is the correct move and may well see Reform UK surge even further in the opinion polls. 

Frank Haviland is the author of Banalysis: The Lie Destroying the West and The Frank Report, which you should probably subscribe to.

If you enjoy The New Conservative and would like to support our work, please consider buying us a coffee – it would really help to keep us going. Thank you!

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This article (Farage Targets Law & Order) was created and published by The New Conservative and is republished here under “Fair Use” with attribution to the author Frank Haviland

 

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